We have two Monday Night Football matchups in Week 2, with Tennessee heading to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Our NFL betting tips predict a tough day for Ryan Tannehill, who should struggle against this tight Bills defense.
Welcome to our free NFL betting tips and predictions for the Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills, the first of two Monday Night Football games tonight.
The Bills proved they deserve to be atop the Super Bowl odds board by making a big statement in the 2022 season opener last Thursday.
Buffalo knocked off the defending champion LA Rams on the road in Week 1 and now faces last year’s top seed in the AFC, the Titans, in Week 2.
The Bills have had a short bye to prepare for their home opener, which is one of the reasons this line increases toward the home team. Tennessee’s Week 1 effort against the NY Giants doesn’t help the visitors, as the Titans blew a 13-0 lead in the second half and lost 21-20 as a 5.5-point home chalk .
In addition to analyzing the Over/Under total, our best bet is a fixture focused on a quarterback who may struggle to get things going tonight.
Best Titans vs Bills odds
Titans vs Bills picks and predictions
The last time these franchises met, the Titans won a shootout 34-31 at home last October. And even though Tennessee outlasted the mighty Bills in that game, quarterback Ryan Tannehill didn’t have a great showing.
Tannehill finished just 18 of 29 for 216 yards, no touchdowns and one interception (he ran for a TD). It was Tennessee’s rushing attack that anchored this victory, with RB Derrick Henry rushing for 143 yards and three scores, one of which was a 76-yard TD run.
Given that rematch in 2022, not only is Tennessee on the road in Week 2, but Tannehill’s receiving corps isn’t what it was the last time these foes butted heads. AJ Brown and Julio Jones are gone, with that pair combining for 150 yards on 10 receptions against the Bills.
Tannehill threw for 266 yards in the Week 1 loss to New York, connecting on 20 of 33 attempts for two touchdowns against an aggressive Giants defense that brought plenty of blitzing under new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. The G-Men blitzed on nearly 49 percent of dropbacks, third-highest in Week 1, and Titans QBs posted 7.3 yards per attempt and completed 60 percent of their throws for 109 yards in those situations
Tannehill is one of the best QBs in the league when facing extra rushers, but he struggles when foes are able to pressure with just the front four. Last season, his yards per attempt dropped to 5.6 under pressure versus 7.8 when blitzing, completing just 53.7 percent of his throws, according to PFF. The Bills can take advantage of that on Monday night.
Buffalo collected seven sacks and seven QB sacks in the win over the Rams, with a 30.6% pressure rate without the need for additional pass hurries. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier blitzed just once on 49 LA dropbacks, and the Bills finished No. 10 in passing percentage on ESPN. Buffalo’s allowed EPA per running back was the second lowest in the land (-0.308) against a much larger air attack.
Tennessee’s offensive line was a major concern entering the season, coming off a 2021 campaign in which the pass protection finished 26th in adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders. And while that group held up better than expected against the Giants in Week 1, the Bills are a big step up in the defensive competition, and I’m betting on a down day from Tannehill in terms of passing yardage.
In addition to the Bills’ pressure and versatile linebackers capable of filling passing lanes and eliminating YAC, Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel wasn’t thrilled with offensive coordinator Todd Downing’s call to the week 1
Downing stymied his star rusher Henry on a number of key possessions in the second half and gave the RB just 21 carries, which is a far cry from his workload last year before he suffered a foot injury in mid-season and back to the playoffs.
With Tannehill feeling the heat from Buffalo’s defense, expect this playbook to go off the rails after surrendering just 43% of snaps in Week 1, a noticeable drop from a playbook that worked in 48 .78% in 2021.
My Best Bet: Ryan Tannehill Under 216.5 yards passing
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Titans vs Bills betting preview
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Diffusion analysis
The leading line set for this monster AFC matchup was at Buffalo -7.5 in the summer. After the Week 1 results, the books opened Buffalo back up to -9, and that quickly rose to -10.5 at some sportsbooks.
The Bills’ opening night performance against the Rams came after a summer of love for the Bills Mafia, which drew plenty of action in all of their futures markets. Buyback on the Titans has since dropped to as low as Buffalo -9.5 with most shops offering -10.
Covers Consensus shows 61% of the home picks, while sportsbooks like WynnBet report 60% of the ticket count for the Bills, but the big bets have the Titans as underdogs and this has more than 79% of the control of Tennessee.
NFL Betting Analysis Covers
Over/under analysis
That Over/Under total was 51 points in preseason lines and reopened at 50 points Sunday night.
Early action has come to the Under and dropped that number by 48 points to many operators, with Buffalo handling the Rams’ offense with ease in Week 1 and the once-powerful Titans’ offense that saw stymied by the Giants defense last Sunday.
Covers Consensus shows 61% of selections on the Over, while WynnBet’s books report 55% of bets on the Over, but an incredible 97% of the early money jumping to the Under, which has forced the books to reduce this total.
Titans vs Bills Game Info
• Location: Highman Stadium, Orchard Park, NY • Date: Monday, September 19, 2022 • Kickoff: 7:15 PM ET • TV: ESPN
Titans vs Bills key injuries
Titans vs Bills time
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Titans vs Bills betting trend to know
The Bills are 12-4 SU and 10-5-1 ATS in the first three games of the season over the last five years (since Sean McDermott took over as head coach). Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. bills