Steelers vs. Browns Odds
The Browns blew a 13-point lead on the Jets with 2 minutes left in the game. Nick Chubb inexplicably ran for a 12-yard touchdown, when he could have slid into bounds to secure a win. He then set off a genuinely insane sequence of events that led to his humiliating defeat.
I imagine the Browns are happy to play Thursday Night Football to get past this game as quickly as possible.
Analysis of the game between Steelers and Browns
Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show how the Steelers and Browns match up statistically:
Steelers vs. Browns DVOA Breakdown
overall DVOA
22 22
Pass DVOA
22 24
Rush DVOA
20 20
overall DVOA
48
Pass DVOA
8 9
Rush DVOA
118
When the Browns have the ball
Jack Conklin does not have an injury designation before Thursday’s game, meaning he will make his season debut. As one of the premier run blockers in the game, his return couldn’t have come at a better time.
The Browns will likely lean heavily on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in what should be a much easier matchup on the ground with reigning Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt on injured reserve.
The Patriots were able to average 4.9 yards on the ground last week in the first game without the Steelers. I hope the Browns continue to use Jacoby Brissett as a “game manager” quarterback. He has attempted just one pass 20 or more yards down the field all season.
In a game where we could see 15-20 mph winds, making it more difficult to throw the ball downfield, the Browns offense is specifically designed to thrive in this very matchup.
When the Steelers have the ball
The Steelers’ offense is in disarray right now, and it’s likely a mix of offensive coordinator Matt Canada, Mitch Trubisky and the blame on the offensive line. It’s unlikely to be resolved in a week when they only have three days to prepare for the game, so I expect their struggles to continue.
Pittsburgh is averaging just 21.4 yards per drive (third-fewest) and is unlikely to take advantage of the Browns’ main weakness on defense right now, which is passing 20+ yards down the field. Trubisky has consistently been one of the worst passers in the league, and that has continued this season as he is just 3-of-11 (27%) on pass attempts of 20+ yards.
I’m leaning towards the Under for tonight’s game. The Steelers rank last in burst rate at 7.5% and average the third-most yards per drive (22.2). They’re unlikely to fix their issues in a short week and given that they’ll have a hard time putting up points here, it will feed off of the Browns’ ultra-conservative, heavy-hitting offense.
The Browns offense should dominate the time of possession in this game as it leans heavily on the run game. However, Cleveland has some regression in scoring. The Browns have scored on 52% of their drives, which is tied with the Bills and Chiefs for the league lead. Based on their underlying stats, we expect them to score closer to 39% of their drives going forward.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns defense has allowed a score on 39% of their drives, but the underlying data suggests it should be closer to 30%. So I think we could see some value in Browns subs in the near term.
Unfortunately, that total has dropped from 40.5 to 38.5, so I’m just going to tilt it down. I’m going to wait and see if that number goes back up to 40.5 before betting on it. I can’t imagine we see the number drop any further.
Be sure to follow me on the Action app to get notified if I end up betting on this or anything else in this game. I would consider betting it again if it gets to 39 or 39.5.
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