A decade under Xi Jinping has seen extraordinary change in China. During his 10 years as leader, Xi has strengthened his personal control over the Communist Party and the party’s control over the country. He has eliminated rivals and enemies through anti-corruption purges and suppressed grassroots dissent by strengthening censorship and surveillance. He has also overseen massive economic growth. Xi has sought to reduce China’s reliance on exports and increase domestic consumption, ordered a military overhaul and modernization, and called for the eradication of absolute poverty among its 1.4 billion people. As he looks set to secure an unprecedented third term in power, Xi will battle a slowing economy and an aging population.
GDP
China’s gross domestic product (GDP) was $17.73 trillion in 2021, an increase of more than 100% since 2012. The rapid growth, however, is slowing, exacerbated by Covid policies -0 and the ongoing real estate market crisis. Earlier this year, the World Bank joined other international monetary bodies in downgrading forecasts for the world’s second-largest economy. For the first time in 30 years, China’s growth lagged behind that of the Asia-Pacific region, where China contributes 86% of output.
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income
Average incomes in China have doubled during Xi’s two terms in office. According to World Bank figures, gross national income (GNI) per capita was US$5,910 (£5,214) in 2012 when Xi came to power, rising steadily to US$11,890 in 2021. Income average available has also increased during this time, from 16,241. RMB ($2,599) in 2012 to RMB 33,172 in 2021. Last year, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) declared that it had achieved its goal of eradicating absolute poverty, as part of its goal of achieving a common prosperity for all Chinese. However, the impact of Covid has complicated matters for Chinese workers, especially those migrating to cities far from their home villages, and income inequality remains high. Analysts have said the CCP needs to set specific targets to reduce China’s Gini coefficient, a measure of income disparity, if it wants to expand the middle class and achieve shared prosperity.
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unemployment
As China’s economic growth has slowed, unemployment rates have remained above 5% since 2019. It is much worse among young people. The unemployment rate for 16-24-year-olds hit a record 19.9%, according to the Office for National Statistics, the highest rate since figures began being published in 2018.
In his speech to the bi-decade meeting of Congress in Beijing on Sunday, Xi pledged to “address structural unemployment [and] improve the job creation system by encouraging the creation of companies and supporting and regulating the development of new forms of employment”.
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Population
Like much of East Asia, China is facing an imminent demographic crisis. Successive political changes have failed to reverse the declining birthrate, resulting in an aging population that threatens to do significant economic damage to China’s future. Every year fewer people get married.
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In 2021, the birthrate fell to a low of 61, and young people pointed to a high cost of living, entrenched unequal gender roles, stagnant mobility in career prospects and a lack of support services motherhood Demographers now think China’s population could peak much earlier than expected. Population aging means a larger proportion of older people in need of care, but a smaller cohort of working-age people. It can also put pressure on the supply of labor and slow down economic growth.
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In the past three years, China has been the world’s worst offender for imprisoning journalists, with at least 50 behind bars by 2021, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. Reporters Without Borders estimates the number to be more than 100. Press freedom advocates have reported a worsening news environment for journalists in China, with media restrictions in Hong Kong also growing under the national security law. On the mainland, Xi Jinping’s government has also seen foreign media access curtailed with growing reports of harassment and intimidation.
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military
Under Xi’s rule, China has attracted concern and opposition from the West for its growing expansionism and regional aggression. Xi has overseen a major restructuring and modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) – the CCP’s military wing – with an apparent focus on the South China Sea and Taiwan. The CCP’s defense budget has more than doubled between 2012 and 2021 to 1.35 trillion yuan ($208 billion). It is still less than a third of that of the US, but it is the largest in the Asia Pacific region, and the US and other Western governments fear that the PLA is about to invade and annex Taiwan, a democracy over which China has a dispute. claim of sovereignty. Analysts note, however, that while the PLA is growing in terms of assets and strength, it has not had combat experience since the 1970s.
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