Recent Russian advances in the Donbas lead to an inevitable question: whether the indiscriminate tactics the Kremlin deployed there will be a template for future offensives.
With the reports of a large number of troops, artillery and rocket launchers gathering across the border near the Russian city of Kursk, in an area bordering the Sumy province of Ukraine, is an urgent problem.
Although much has been said about the painful and slow pace of Russia’s recent offensive in the Donbass, the speed of territorial gains is not the only metric.
The Russian tactics that have shaped the battle in the Donbass have also posed a brutal dilemma for Ukrainian defenders: to stay on their ground amid rapidly growing casualties, or to withdraw and risk giving. boost to attackers.
Although other parts of the 300-mile front line in eastern Ukraine do not have some of the same vulnerabilities that existed around Sievierodonetsk, which was in the middle of a Ukrainian outflow that Russia exploded, in any future offensive, the Kremlin is likely to offer the same duration in Kyiv. options, trying to stretch their responsiveness.
Russia’s advance on SievierodonetskSieverodonetsk and Lysychank
Perhaps the first and most urgent question, if and when Russian forces completely take Sievierodonetsk, is whether they then try to cross the Siverskyi Donets River, after Ukrainian artillery pointed to disastrous attempts to cross elsewhere with deadly effects.
Whether Russian forces are trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets River, a natural barrier, in Sievierodonetsk or anywhere else in Ukraine, Russian forces appear to be preparing for a new push northward. evidence that they are regrouping near the Ukrainian city of Izium for renewal. his efforts stalled against Slovyansk, rebuilding a railway bridge near Kupyansk to facilitate the movement of troops and equipment in the area.
What is more difficult to assess is the level of attrition inflicted by both sides and what impact it will have on the new offensives and Ukraine’s ability to defend and counterattack.
While the UK Ministry of Defense has caused much of the Russian losses during the war, more recently, the growing casualties among junior officers, the Russian gains in the Donbas seem to tell a different story, at least for now. The increase in anecdotal evidence suggests that Ukraine has suffered numerous casualties during the last fighting in the east, largely by shrapnel, and there are reports of equipment and supply problems.
What may be true is that despite the tests of the new Russian preparations, the difficulty of the fighting and the heavy losses may limit Russia’s ambitions beyond controlling the Donbas, the south and its key coast.
“After nearly a hundred days of war,” Michael Clarke of the Royal United Services Institute wrote in the Times earlier this week, “the Russian offensive in Ukraine is finally beginning to seem more consistent, if not strategically wise or sustainable.” .
However, predicting a protracted war, former Australian General Mick Ryan questioned the idea that Russia or Ukraine were close to exhaustion in a long Twitter thread examining the current military position and likely trajectory.
“In April and early May, after Ukraine’s victory in the Battle of Kyiv, a certain degree of triumph was placed in the narratives of the Ukrainian war. But, as the Russians have recently shown, concentrating their forces in smaller regions of Ukraine can lead to tactical victories, “he said.
“Neither of the two belligerents has shown the ability to strike a strategically decisive blow against the other. Although the Ukrainians demonstrate superiority in global influence, strategy, and leadership, the Russians continue to generate combat power to attack them in the east.
“Although the Russians and Ukrainians are losing hundreds and if not thousands of people and equipment, neither is an exhausted nation. The Russians have stockpiles of labor and equipment stored. Ukraine has large amounts of military aid that it crosses borders. “
Despite continued Russian bombardment around Kharkiv and in the south around Kherson, where two limited Ukrainian counteroffensives have stalled, the Russian goal in both areas, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, is to consolidate defenses and lines of action. supply and disrupt Ukrainian forces. where they have managed to move forward.
Elsewhere, however, as the American think tank the Institute for the Study of War suggests: “Russia’s progress remains limited and is unlikely to increase in the short term, especially when Russian forces continue to prioritize assaults on Sievierodonetsk at the expense of other lines of effort. “