Grain containers storing corn, wheat, sunflower and soybeans in Boryspil, Ukraine, in May. Credit… Nicole Tung for The New York Times
BRUSSELS – There are many moving parts to the grain deal reached between Russia and Ukraine, which officials did not even think was possible until mid-June, especially as the war continues and trust between the parties is extremely come down
Here’s what to know about the pimple problem and how it could be tackled now.
Why was Ukrainian grain stuck in the country?
After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, it deployed warships along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. Ukraine exploited these waters to deter a Russian naval attack. This meant that the ports used to export grain from Ukraine were blocked for commercial transport. Russia also stole grain stocks, blew up grain fields so they could not be harvested, and destroyed grain storage facilities.
Ukrainian soldiers in a position in front of the beach in Odesa, along the Black Sea coast, in March. Credit… Tyler Hicks/The New York Times
How will the operation work?
Ukrainian captains will guide the ships full of grain out of the ports of Odesa, Yuzhne and Chornomorsk.
A joint command center with officials from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations will immediately be established in Istanbul to oversee all movements of the flotillas.
Note: the arrow highlights the general direction of travel; does not represent a
exact route • Source: European and other government officials
Note: the arrow highlights the general direction of travel; does not represent a
exact route • Source: European and other government officials
The ships will head into Turkish waters, to be inspected by a joint team of Turkish, UN, Ukrainian and Russian officials, then deliver their cargo to destinations around the world, returning for another inspection by part of the joint team before returning to Ukraine.
The agreement specifies that the main responsibility of the inspection team is to check for “unauthorized cargo and personnel on board ships entering or leaving Ukrainian ports.” A key demand from Russia was that the returning ships not bring weapons to Ukraine.
The parties have agreed that ships and port facilities used for their operations will be protected from hostilities.
The operation is expected to quickly begin shipping five million tons of beans per month. At this rate, and given that 2.5 million tons are already being transported by land and river to friendly neighbors Ukraine, stockpiles of nearly 20 million tons should be cleared within three or four months. This will free up space in storage facilities for the new harvest that is already underway in Ukraine.
What are the risks?
No broad ceasefire has been negotiated, so the ships will travel through a war zone. Attacks near the ships or at the ports they use could derail the deal. Another risk would be a breach of trust or disagreement between inspectors and joint command officials.
The role of the United Nations and Turkey is to mediate these disagreements on the spot, and to monitor and enforce the agreement. The agreement is valid for 120 days and the UN expects it to be renewed.
Wheat harvest in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region last week. Credit… Sergey Bobok/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Will this immediately solve world hunger and lower food prices?
No. World hunger is an ongoing problem caused by poor food distribution and price manipulation, which affects parts of the world year after year. It often exacerbates conflicts and has also been affected by climate change. The war in Ukraine, which produces much of the world’s wheat, added enormous strain to grain distribution networks, driving up prices and fueling hunger.
Officials say the deal has the potential to increase the flow of wheat to Somalia within weeks, averting a full-blown famine, and should lead to a gradual decline in global grain prices. But given the fragility of the deal, grain markets are unlikely to return to normal immediately.
What’s in store for Russia?
Russia is also a major exporter of grains and fertilizers and the agreement should facilitate the sale of these commodities on the world market.
The Kremlin has repeatedly claimed that its stock cannot be exported due to sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union.
The measures do not actually affect those goods, but private shipping companies, insurers, banks and other companies have been reluctant to help Russia export grain and fertilizer, fearing they could incur sanctions or do business with Russia may damage its reputation. .
Offering reassurance, the European Union on July 21 issued a legal clarification on its sanctions saying that several banks and other companies involved in the grain trade were not banned.
The United Nations said that, armed with similar assurances from the United States, it held talks with the private sector and that trade from Russia, particularly the Russian port of Novorossiysk, should pick up the pace.
Correction:
July 22, 2022
An earlier version of this article incorrectly described the process agreed upon by Ukraine and Russia for the grain ships. The ships will take their cargo to different destinations and return to Ukrainian ports, stopping for inspections in Turkey. Your cargo will not necessarily be unloaded in Turkey to be transported to its destinations by other vessels.
— Matina Stevis-Gridneff