Covid vaccines reduced the number of deaths worldwide by 20 million in the first year after they became available, according to the first major analysis.
The study, which modeled the spread of the disease in 185 countries and territories between December 2020 and December 2021, found that without the vaccines against Covid, 31.4 million people would have died and that 19 , 8 million of these deaths. The study is the first attempt to quantify the number of deaths avoided directly and indirectly as a result of Covid-19 vaccines.
“We knew it would be a huge amount, but I didn’t think it would reach 20 million deaths in the first year alone,” said Oliver Watson of Imperial College London, who is co-lead author of the study by university scientists.
Many more deaths could have been avoided if access to vaccines had been more egalitarian around the world. Nearly 600,000 additional deaths, one in five of Covid’s deaths in low-income countries, could have been avoided if the global goal of the World Health Organization to vaccinate 40% of the population had been achieved. of each country by the end of 2021, according to research.
“Our results show that millions of lives have probably been saved by making vaccines available to people everywhere, regardless of their wealth,” Watson said. “However, more could have been done.”
He said that while it was still vital to provide vaccines worldwide, especially to high-risk people, in many parts of the world with low vaccine coverage there were high levels of immunity due to a previous infection, which means that the chance of saving lives had been reduced.
Since the first vaccine against Covid was administered outside a clinical trial on December 8, 2020, nearly two-thirds of the world’s population have received at least one dose of a vaccine, and the global access initiative to vaccines against Covid-19 (Covax) have facilitated access. to affordable vaccines for low-income countries to try to reduce inequalities.
The study, published in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases, used official figures – or estimates when no official data was available – for deaths from Covid, as well as total excess deaths in each country. Excess mortality is the difference between the total number of people who died from all causes and the number of deaths predicted according to previous data, and in many countries these figures give the most reliable picture of deaths by Covid.
Sign up for First Edition, our free daily newsletter, every weekday morning at 7:00 BST
These analyzes were compared with a hypothetical alternative scenario in which no vaccine was administered. This means that the figures include direct protection of vaccines for people and also the broader benefits for the health system, for example, the effect on mortality rates of more available hospital beds.
The figures probably represent the upper end of how many deaths were avoided if no vaccines were available, as policies on blockades, for example, would have been different.
Professor Azra Ghani, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College London, said: “Our study demonstrates the enormous benefit of vaccines in reducing Covid-19 deaths worldwide. that the intense attention to the pandemic has now changed, it is important that we ensure that the most vulnerable people in all parts of the world are protected from the continued circulation of Covid-19 and other major diseases that continue to disproportionately affect to the poorest. ”