A little-noticed rule change allowing Tory members to vote twice in this summer’s leadership election will be key to Rishi Sunak’s hopes of salvaging his failed bid to become prime minister, experts have said in The Independent.
With online voting opening on August 1, the former chancellor has just a matter of days to overturn rival Liz Truss’s electoral lead before tens of thousands of Tory members vote and n are going on holiday, making Monday’s live televised debate on the BBC possibly their last chance to win over many of them with a vote.
But an “unprecedented” option allows the party’s 160,000 loyalists to review their vote if they change their mind during the six-week campaign, which supporters believe favors the former chancellor, who they believe will shine as the cut of ‘taxes of your opponent. plans come under scrutiny.
Labor deputy leader Angela Rayner today dismissed the election as a “warped pantomime to win over the unrepresentative Tory electorate … totally divorced from the priorities of the British people”.
He said whoever wins should call an immediate general election to “seek a mandate again” from voters.
And prominent Truss backer Iain Duncan Smith said the new voting system, which allows online and postal votes but will only have the latter of the two, will “create nightmares” by introducing “too much complexity distant” to a lasting campaign. longer than the general election.
Senior Tories fear the summer contest, which features 12 polls across the UK, will further damage the party’s image as the two contenders go at each other in a bitter fight to succeed Boris Johnson.
But polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde 22 told The Independent that the real battle could be over long before the polls close on September 2. He judged as “credible” a recent YouGov poll which gave the foreign secretary a 24-point lead over the former chancellor, 62 per cent to Sunak’s 38.
“Sunak is probably behind Truss at the moment among the members and he needs to try to reduce that significantly in the next two weeks, which is when it really matters,” Professor Curtice said.
“Sunak is by far the better performer of the two, but the question is whether he can demonstrate that and use that to deliver an effective message in the time available. It’s the second part of that equation that I think is in doubt “.
Much will depend on whether Tory members exercise the “second thoughts” option, he said: “Sunak needs as much time as possible and people changing their minds could give him an advantage.”
Her Tory father and leading pollster, Robert Hayward, agreed that a “head-on” campaign was likely to be possible because of voters’ tendency to cast ballots as soon as parcels land on their doormats.
But he said the new voting system was suitable for an election where there was an unusual level of “fluidity”, with campaigners likely to judge the contenders not on a traditional left-right divide, but on who has the best chance. to make the elections. success.
“There will be events that come to dominate the debate after a lot of people have voted,” he told The Independent. “Whether it’s a sudden increase in the cost of borrowing or a crisis in the NHS or a breakthrough in Ukraine. It’s good that they’re allowing people to change their minds.”
Sources close to Truss’s team acknowledged they would not dissuade people from early voting, but insisted the issue was not uppermost in their candidate’s mind.
And Sunak’s supporters questioned the foreign secretary’s reach, noting that similar polls at the same stage of the 2019 leadership election overestimated Johnson’s lead by almost 10 points, and that many members responded “don’t know” to pollsters.
The former chancellor is understood to be planning a blitz of TV and radio appearances to maximize his exposure in the crucial week ahead.
And his team continues to seek endorsements from supporters of the defeated contenders, hailing the support of George Freeman, a prominent backer of Penny Mordaunt, as a sign to campaigners that Sunak will be able to command the confidence of a wide swath of the party parliamentary as a leader
But former leader Mark Harper, a staunch supporter of Sunak, was clear that the “no brainer” votes could have a decisive impact.
“It creates a level playing field,” he said. “It means members have a better chance to see both candidates in action and make up their own minds.
“Based on my own judgment, having worked with both candidates, as well as solid audience polls watching the televised debates thus far, I feel comfortable that the more exposure there is and the more debates there are, it will be better for Rishi.”
Another Sunak supporter, former Welsh Secretary Simon Hart, told The Independent that the clash over tax cuts that has dominated recent debate would not be the only question on members’ minds when they vote.
Both candidates agreed that taxes should come down, but their difference was over “unhappy timing”, with the former chancellor insisting they should wait until the danger of an inflationary spike has passed, Hart said .
He questioned Ms Truss’s claim to have opposed the next National Insurance rise in the Cabinet, saying: “All the tax decisions in the last two years have been collective that the Cabinet signed off on its entirety”.
Hart said: “It’s not just about picking a party leader, it’s about picking a prime minister at a very, very difficult time. The party will want someone who is tried and tested and trustworthy on the economy.
“There is a very simple judgment that many members will make, which is ‘Who is the candidate most likely to hold or win our seat in the election?’
“They will be asking who has the best policies for the nation as a whole, rather than who is saying things that appeal to Tory members. There are diverse views in the party, but the one thing that unites everyone is that we want to win.
“That has to work in a Lib Dem-leaning seat in the South West, or a multicultural London seat or a Red Wall seat in the North or a Plaid Cymru-leaning seat in Wales. That’s where I think Rishi will be much more interesting to the members. It’s someone who is able to work in all these different dynamics.”
Duncan Smith poured cold water on efforts to read the intentions of party members, noting that in his own leadership election in 2001, he was considered an outsider first to Michael Portillo and then to Kenneth Clarke before achieve victory
“The next two weeks will be disproportionately important because that’s when people are likely to send in their ballots,” the former Tory leader said.
“I think they’re both in with a shout. I don’t buy the idea that Rishi will win with longer exposure. I don’t think he’s done particularly well in the hustings so far.”
Ms Rayner told The Independent: “While we need a government that looks outward at the challenges facing our country, the Tories are only talking about themselves.
“The public is watching in horror as they perform a warped pantomime to win over the unrepresentative Tory electorate. Both candidates are completely divorced from the priorities of the British people.
“They are letting Britain down, wallowing in their own mess and showing no plan for the deepening cost of living crisis, worsening energy bills or taking climate action.
“This Conservative government has lost the trust of voters and has failed spectacularly. Whoever becomes Conservative leader will have to seek a mandate again. It is becoming increasingly clear that the British people are not prepared to be taken for fools. Only work can provide the fresh start our country needs.”