Ukrainian soldiers in the Kherson region this month. The Ukrainian army claims to have expelled the Russians from the perimeter defensive positions in various places and now has soldiers operating 20 miles from the city of Kherson. Credit … Tyler Hicks / The New York Times
As Russia relies on an overwhelming destructive force to advance one or two miles a day into eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers fighting about 400 miles south have been constantly working to eliminate Russian front-line positions. through an extension of steppes and swamps.
The struggle is fierce on both fronts, and how the two campaigns unfold is crucial to understanding where the war is, as concern grows that a protracted conflict will entail new economic costs for Ukraine’s allies.
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin said last week that he thought he would wait for the West to come out. While the Russian leader rarely acknowledges Russian losses or defeats, military analysts said the ill-treatment his army inflicted has raised questions about whether he can maintain extensive offensive operations after ending his campaign to capture the province. of Luhansk.
Russia has pledged most of its combat forces to the capture of Lysychansk, the last urban center in Luhansk still controlled by the Ukrainian government, and could fall any day.
Russia has sent thousands of additional troops east over the past few weeks to bolster its offensive in the neighboring Donetsk province, where it will likely try once again to overwhelm Ukraine’s heavily fortified positions with its large artillery arsenal, missiles and air power, although ground forces are reduced.
To what extent is each army diminished after more than four months of war is an open question. Kyiv only publishes comprehensive estimates of its losses, and Moscow says virtually nothing.
British Defense Chief Ben Wallace said last week that 25,000 Russian soldiers had died since the war began. The figure, which could not be independently confirmed, is the highest estimate provided by a senior Western official. The Ukrainian government has acknowledged that it has suffered staggering losses, with hundreds of casualties every day.
Even if Russia can go deeper into Donetsk, its army has struggled to maintain a breakthrough in multiple lines of attack on different parts of a country that is roughly the size of Texas.
The defeat of the Russians on Thursday on Snake Island in the Black Sea, where their troops were forced to withdraw under heavy Ukrainian bombardment, highlighted the Russians’ dependence on their superiority in heavy weapons.
Russia’s withdrawal from the island was expected to undermine Moscow’s control of vital grain transport routes from Odessa. And when Russian missile attacks on a residential building and recreation center near Odessa killed at least 21 people on Friday, the Ukrainians saw it as an act of revenge.
“This was an act of revenge for the successful liberation of Snake Island,” Yevhen Yenin, first deputy interior minister, said in an interview. He mocked Russian claims that leaving the island was a gesture of “goodwill.”
A satellite image from Maxar Technologies showed smoke rising from Snake Island on Thursday. Credit … Maxar Technologies / Via Reuters
With its scarce forces, Russia has been trying for months to strengthen its defensive positions in the south, where Ukraine has recaptured parts of the Kherson region west of the Dnieper River that Russia captured early in the war.
The Ukrainian army has said that the Russians have been expelled from perimeter defensive positions in various places and that Ukrainian soldiers are operating 20 miles from the city of Kherson. A senior U.S. Department of Defense official said last week that Ukrainians were not only reclaiming villages, but also showing the ability to keep the land reclaimed.
The Ukrainian army also claimed that on Friday it hit Russian military targets near Kherson. “Operating in pairs, our pilots hit ammunition depots, a strong point and a group of enemy troops and equipment in the area of Snihurivka, Blahodatne, Olhany and Davydiv Brid,” the Southern Command said on Facebook, in reference to peoples. north of Kherson along the line of contact.
But military analysts have warned that despite Ukraine’s gains in the south, it is unlikely they will be able to mount a broad offensive and advance soon on the city of Kherson, the only provincial capital that has fallen into the hands of the Russians.