Simon O’Donnell’s Melbourne Cup form guide: How the race will play out and likely winner as upset looms

Melbourne Cup horses, field, form guide: SIMON O’DONNELL is a racing commentator, the founder of Wingara Thoroughbreds and a former Australian international cricketer.

Deauville Legend has been rated as the deserved favorite to win Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup, the race that stops a nation.

And while it’s clearly the class horse of the race, the result is far from a foregone conclusion.

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Race tactics will play a big part in deciding the order of finish for the 2022 event, and what we see in the first 200m should give a fair indication of which jockey will be hailing as they pass the post .

The favorite could be out of contention early if the Melbourne Cup plays out as I expect, with a much slower pace up front.

We hope this complete guide to forms will help you pick a winner.

Deauville Legend ridden by Daniel Muscutt on his way to winning the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes at York Racecourse. (PA Images via Getty Images)

1. GOLDEN TRIP (barrier 14)

6 year old horse

Weight: 57.5 kg

Coach: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Career: 15: 1-4-4

Last 6: x33529

Winning distance: 2200 m

Earnings: $1,514,914

Odds: 13/4 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Super run in the Caulfield Cup, has elite form over 2400m Europe. Looks like he’s finding his Aussie legs with this build. He’s got a lot of weight to carry, but on his day if he can run the two miles he’s a real shot.

2. PRIZE (barrier 10)

5 years old

Weight: 55.5 kg

Coach: Edward Cummings

Jockey: Hugh Bowman

Career: 23: 7-4-1

Last 6: 7×0688

Winning range: 1300-2400m

Earnings: $2,887,765

Odds: 26 / 6.50 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: He’s looked a bit flat to me in his preparation so far, or maybe he’s looking for those longer rides. His early runs have not been ideal through the Turnbull Stakes and the Caulfield Cup. He looked to run a little flat, but if he can bring his A-game and stay at 3200m, his best form puts it in him.

3. ORDER OF KNIGHTS (barrier 24)

8 years neutered

Weight: 55.5 kg

Coach: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Tim Clark

Career: 30: 9-1-5

Last 6: 1×1343

Winning range: 1600-3200m

Earnings: $2,421,401

Odds: 26 / 6.50 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: He was very average in the Melbourne Cup last year but has since regained his form with a win in the Sydney Cup and a gutsy finish in the Caulfield Cup. If he handles the pressure and the day better than last year, he’s a real top-10 shot.

4. MONTEFILIA (barrier 11)

5 years old

Weight: 55.5 kg

Coach: David Payne

Jockey: Jason Collett

Career: 22: 6-1-5

Last 6: 18 x 434

Winning range: 1400-2400m

Earnings: $2,756,525

Odds: 12 / 3.90 (Courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: He hit the line really hard in the Caulfield Cup and gave every indication that he is looking for a longer trip. He is a class act and has the breeding on both sides to run this kind of distance. It brings a strong background to the career and is one of the genuine opportunities.

Montefilia on the way to the barriers before the run of the Caulfield Cup. (Race photos via Getty Images)

5. NUMERIAN (barrier 7)

7 years neutered

Weight: 55.5 kg

Coach: Annabel Neasham

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Career: 30: 5-8-4

Last 6: 211225

Winning range: 1408-2200m

Earnings: $1,514,573

Odds: 71/17 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: He came close to winning the Caulfield Cup but seemed to fade in his career. With these tests alone, I don’t see him running 3200m. I think the trip will leave him undone and he is more ready around the 2000m mark to see him better.

6. NO FIGHT (barrier 18)

6 years neutered

Weight: 55.5 kg

Coach: Simon and Ed Crisford

Jockey: William Buick

Career: 17: 7-3-4

Last 6: 203112

Range of victory: 2012-2787 m

Earnings: $410,620

Odds: 11 / 3.70 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: One of the overseas raiders. He is a good traveler and brings winning competitive form to our shores. By all reports, and judging by his vision, he’s tough, he’s tough, and he’ll really make his presence felt.

Verry Elleegant takes Melbourne Cup victory

7. CAMORRA (barrier 17)

6 years neutered

Weight: 55 kg

Coach: Ben and JD Hayes

Jockey: Ben Melham

Career: 17: 4-2-4

Last 6: 7×5518

Victory range: 1628-2816m

Earnings: $294,998

Odds: 51/13 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: The form leading up to his last race has been impressive. The better the ground, the better he will go, so a firmer track on Tuesday should give him the best chance. Have a small query due to his poor performance last time, but with his A-game he should stay two miles, and a genuine top-10 finish will not surprise.

8. LEGEND OF DEAUVILLE (barrier 9)

Neutered 4 years old

Weight: 55 kg

Coach: James Ferguson

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Career: 7: 3-3-0

Last 6: x12121

Range of victory: 2012-2615 m

Earnings: $556,167

Odds: 3.60 / 2 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: A legitimate favorite for the Melbourne Cup. Brings a strong win and hold profile to the race. He carries 3.5kg more than any other Melbourne Cup-winning three-year-old in Europe, so he’s heavy for a very good horse. Whether his seven-race experience is enough to season him and have him ready to win a Melbourne Cup, only the race will tell. But it is a real opportunity in everything he has done during the English summer.

Deauville legend and jockey Kerrin McEvoy on track before the Melbourne Cup. (Jay Town/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

9. STOCKMAN (barrier 9)

6 years neutered

Weight: 54 kg

Coach: Joseph Pride

Jockey: Sam Clipperton

Career: 36: 8-7-3

Last 6: 964418

Winning range: 1300-2600m

Earnings: $1,343,890

Odds: 29 / 7.50 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: He has struggled every time he has gone to race at elite level, although he has a Group 1 placing in the Tancred last autumn. He won two starts over 2600m, and then I expected him to run a strong mile, but I’m not sure he has the class to greet the judge first in a Melbourne Cup.

10. VOTE AND DECLARATION (barrier 4)

7 years neutered

Weight: 54 kg

Coach: Danny O’Brien

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Career: 27: 4-3-4

Last 6: 0x5356

Winning range: 1800-3200m

Earnings: $6,035,880

Odds: 21 / 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: The 2019 winner who looks set to do as well as he did then. Hit the line solidly in the Caulfield Cup with some late interference. Obviously, with the track and distance experience here, and going as well as he is, he’s set himself up again to be competitive in the 2022 version of the race.

Vow and Declare win the Melbourne Cup

11. YOUNG WERTHER (barrier 21)

Neutered 5 years old

Weight: 54 kg

Coach: Danny O’Brien

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 14: 1-4-3

Last 6: 28 x 430

Winning distance: 1500 m

Earnings: $1,149,900

Odds: 9/34 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: He gives every indication that he will make a trip like this, but he has been unlucky with the barrier draw. He doesn’t win often. A solid performance against outstanding company in the Cox Plate will have seen him through to give his best over two miles.

12. HOO YA MAL (barrier 15)

4 year old horse

Weight: 53.5 kg

Coach: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 9: 2-3-3

Last 6: 322318

Victory range: 1408-2816m

Earnings: $905,868

Odds: 19 / 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Runner-up in an Epsom Derby is excellent form for a Melbourne Cup. It’s such a tough course that you’d think he’d need to run the two miles here. He has won over 2,800 meters in Europe, which gives us every indication that two miles will be in his arsenal. He will be trained to the minute by Gai Waterhouse, hopefully positive from barrier 15, and could be in the race for a long way.

Manzoice claims the Victoria Derby with a storming finish

13. SERPENTINA (barrier 23)

6 years neutered

Weight: 53.5 kg

Coach: Robert Hickmott

Jockey: John Allen

Career: 14: 2-1-0

Last 6: x00902

Victory range: 2012-2420m

Earnings: $730,004

Odds: 71/17 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: An English Derby winner. A daring forward trajectory on Saturday got him into the race. Expect him to progress again over 2400m, and expect Galileo, a super-maintained stallion, to enjoy the 3200m Melbourne Cup and be there or thereabouts for a top-10 finish. Not sure if he has the class to win it.

14. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (barrier 13)

Neutered 5 years old

Weight: 53 kg

Coach: Phillip Stokes

Jockey: Daniel Moor

Career: 21: 7-1-2

Last 6: 13×070

Winning range: 1600-3200m

Earnings: $621,142

Odds: 51/13 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Adelaide Cup winner, Sydney Cup winner. The form leading up to this has been fair, but a genuine person who will appreciate running the two miles. My question mark is whether he has the class to worry the main contenders.

I Wish I Win conquers the exciting Golden Eagle

15. GRAN PASSEIG (barrier 1)

7 years neutered

Weight: 53 kg

Coach: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Harry Coffey

Career: 24: 8-4-2

Last 6: x7x594

Winning range: 1700-2600m

Earnings: $1,222,400

Odds: 81/21 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Solid effort last outing in the Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. He has a good record at Flemington, winning here three times, but his only trial over 3200m left him unplaced. Under pressure on Tuesday, I’m not sure he has the class to win the race, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he could finish five to 10 points back at the end of the 3200m.

16. ARAPAHO (barrier 19)

6 years neutered

Weight: 52.5 kg

Coach: Bjorn Baker

Jockey: Rachel King

Career: 26: 6-5-3

Last 6: 712382

Victory range: 1300-2350m

Earnings: $673,900

Odds: 81/21 (courtesy of Bet365 from 1pm on Sunday)

Simon O’Donnell says: Beaten by Stockman in an open handicap last start over 2600m. This prep has been solid, but I’m not sure it’s been solid enough to have…

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