People in China who have been cut off from the rest of the world for three years by COVID-19 restrictions gathered at travel sites on Tuesday ahead of the reopening of borders, even as the surge in infections strained the health system and disrupted the economy.
Zero-tolerance measures, from closed borders to frequent lockdowns, have plagued China’s economy since the start of 2020, fueling last month the continent’s biggest show of public discontent since President Xi Jinping took power in 2012.
His investment policy this month means the virus is now spreading largely unchecked across the country of 1.4 billion people.
Official statistics, however, showed just one death from COVID-19 in the seven days to Monday, fueling doubts among health experts and residents about the government’s figures. The figures are inconsistent with the experience of much less populated countries after their reopening.
LOOK | What the outbreak means for China and the world:
What the latest outbreak of COVID-19 in China means for its residents and the world
China may be in for a “tough few months” because of its latest outbreak of COVID-19, says infectious disease specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch. But he says that while Canada remains at risk from variants emerging around the world, the vaccines are still effective against serious outcomes.
Doctors say hospitals are overwhelmed with five to six times more patients than usual, most of them elderly. International health experts estimate millions of daily infections and predict at least one million deaths from COVID-19 in China next year.
However, the authorities are determined to dismantle the last vestiges of their zero-COVID-19 policies.
In a major step to ease border jitters cheered by global stock markets on Tuesday, China will no longer require incoming travelers to enter quarantine starting January 8, the National Health Commission (NHC) said on Monday.
“It finally looks like China has turned the corner,” AmCham China president Colm Rafferty said of the impending lifting of the quarantine rule.
There are no official restrictions on Chinese people going abroad, but the new rule will make it much easier for them to return home.
Searches for popular destinations are on the rise
Data from travel platform Ctrip showed that within half an hour of the news, searches for popular cross-border destinations had increased tenfold. Macau, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand and South Korea were the most searched, Ctrip said.
Trip.com data showed that outbound flight bookings were up 254 percent on Tuesday from the previous day.
However, travel agencies and mainstream Chinese suggested that a return to normal would still take months, given concerns over COVID-19 and more careful spending due to the impact of the pandemic.
Once the border with Hong Kong reopens next month, people in mainland China will be able to take mRNA vaccines made by BioNTech, which are said to be more effective than those available on the mainland.
Downgrade the severity of COVID
China’s classification of COVID-19 will also be downgraded to the less strict Category B from the current top-level Category A from January 8, the health authority said, meaning authorities will no longer be forced to quarantine patients and close contacts and impose blockades. .
China has changed the name of its term for COVID-19 from “novel coronavirus pneumonia” to “novel coronavirus infection,” a statement released Monday by the National Health Commission said. Omicron remains the dominant variant of COVID-19 in the country, an official from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention said.
But for all the excitement of a gradual return to a pre-pandemic way of life, there was growing pressure on the health system, with doctors saying many hospitals are overwhelmed while funeral homes are reporting an increase in demand for their services.
LOOK | China eases strict ‘zero COVID’ measures after protests:
China eases strict ‘zero COVID’ measures after protests
China is loosening its strict COVID-19 restrictions after the protests, but that comes with a greater risk of the virus spreading to the country. Experts warn that if the population is not adequately vaccinated, another variant could emerge.
Nurses and doctors have been asked to work while sick and retired medical workers in rural communities have been rehired to help, state media reported. Some cities have been struggling to secure supplies of fever medicine.
“Some places are facing great pressure on hospital emergency rooms and intensive care units,” NHC official Jiao Yahui told reporters.
While the world’s second-largest economy is expected to see a strong recovery late next year, the coming weeks and months are expected to be held up by growing worker sickness .
Many shops in Shanghai, Beijing and elsewhere have closed in recent days with staff unable to come to work, while some factories have already sent many of their workers on leave for the late-January Lunar New Year holiday .
The workforce is still affected by infections
“Concerns about a temporary supply chain distortion remain as the workforce is affected by infections,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note, adding that metro traffic monitoring in 29 cities showed that many people were restricting their movements as the virus spread.
The lifting of travel restrictions is positive for the $17 trillion economy, but strong caveats apply.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said his country would require a negative COVID-19 test for travelers from mainland China. The government would also limit airlines that increase flights to China, he said.
“International travel … will likely increase, but it may take many more months before volumes return to pre-pandemic levels,” said Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China.
“Covid is still spreading in most parts of China, greatly disrupting normal working hours. The loss of productivity is significant.”