1. The war will likely drag on for at least a year, but it is essentially at a standstill and its intensity is waning
Six months of war may have passed, but neither Ukraine nor Russia are ready to stop fighting, despite the losses they have suffered. Ukraine wants to take back its occupied territories, and Russia wants to continue inflicting pain not only on its opponent but, by proxy, on the West as well. The Kremlin believes that winter will play to its advantage.
There have been no negotiations between the two sides since evidence emerged of the massacres in Bucha, Irpin and other places in the Russian-occupied territories north of Kyiv. But movement on the front lines has been minimal since the fall of Lysychansk in late June. Both sides are fighting for momentum and are increasingly looking battle-worn.
2. Ukraine has no means of effective conventional counterattack, while guerrilla incursions are an optimistic way to precipitate a Russian collapse.
Ukraine would like to retake Kherson, west of the Dnieper River, but a senior administration official admitted privately that “we don’t have enough capability to push them back.” Kyiv has changed its strategy to mount long-range missile strikes and daring raids by special forces on Russian bases behind the front lines.
Key presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said the aim was to “create chaos within the Russian forces”, but while this will reduce the effectiveness of the invader, it is not likely to cause the invaders to pounce on themselves and voluntarily surrender to Kherson, like some Ukrainians. officials have waited.
Russian soldiers patrol an area of the Azovstal Metallurgical Complex in Mariupol, in the Russian-controlled Donetsk region. Photograph: AP
3. Russia still wants to advance, but its focus is likely to shift to holding on to its gains and annexing Ukrainian territory
Russia has no new offensive plans other than mass artillery, destroy towns and cities, and blast their way forward. It does so partly because it is effective, and partly to minimize casualties, having lost, according to some Western estimates, 15,000 dead so far. He continues to adopt this strategy around Bakhmut in the Donbas, but progress is slow, in part because he has had to redeploy some forces to reinforce Kherson.
The Kremlin may not have achieved what it hoped for at the start of the war, but Russia now holds large swaths of Ukrainian territory in the east and south, and is actively talking about holding annexation referendums. With cooler weather fast approaching, you’re likely to focus on consolidating what you’ve got.
4. Winter will precipitate a new refugee crisis and create an opportunity for those best prepared
Winter is most important in strategic thinking for both sides. Ukraine is already concerned about humanitarian issues because there is no gas heating available for apartment blocks in Donetsk province and other frontline areas. A humanitarian official predicted there would be a new wave of migration in the winter, with perhaps as many as 2 million people crossing the border into Poland.
Russians see winter as an opportunity. Ukraine fears that Russia will target its energy grid, exacerbating its heating dilemma, and could simply shut down the large Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Moscow also wants to prolong the West’s pain over energy costs and has every incentive to increase the pressure.
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The spring, however, could be the time for a fresh attack: each side will want to rest and prepare for what is likely to be another struggling season.
Nila Zelinska holds a doll belonging to her granddaughter in front of her destroyed house in Potashnya, outside Kyiv, Ukraine, in May. Photograph: Natacha Pisarenko/AP
5. The West must decide whether it wants Ukraine to win or simply hold on, and must match humanitarian aid with dire need.
Ukraine would have been defeated without Western military aid. But at no time so far has the West supplied enough artillery or other weapons, such as fighter jets, to allow Kyiv to push back the invaders. Politicians talk about the need to force Russia to its pre-war borders, but do not provide enough material to do so.
At the same time, Ukraine’s humanitarian need is growing. For example, there is not enough money for reconstruction, and many houses in the north-east and north-west of Kyiv remain in ruins five months after the Russians left, often with desperate residents living in garages or temporary structures on the site .
IDPs often have to live in schools or kindergartens, temporary accommodation where people find it difficult to stay for an extended period of time. Ukraine has a budget gap of $5bn (£4.2bn) a month due to the war; aid and reconstruction will cost many times more.