Iran has deepened its commitment to supply weapons for Russia’s assault on Ukraine by agreeing to provide a batch of medium-range missiles as well as a large number of cheap but effective drones, US security officials say and Iran.
The surface-to-surface missiles are designed to supplement Russia’s severely depleted stockpile of missiles, as part of an attempt to systematically destroy Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure ahead of a brutal winter.
UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace flew to Washington at short notice to discuss the dangerous new stage of the war, share information on Iran’s involvement and discuss what new air defense package may be provided to Ukraine to help the nation avoid attacks. .
The sale of Iranian missiles to Russia followed a series of meetings, including one in Moscow on September 18 and another on October 6, when Iran’s first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, two senior officials of the powerful Revolutionary Guard and a Supreme Court official. The National Security Council visited Moscow.
Reuters quoted an Iranian official briefed on the October trip as saying: “The Russians had asked for more drones and those Iranian ballistic missiles with improved accuracy, especially the Fateh and Zolfaghar family of missiles.”
The two short-range missiles are capable of hitting targets at ranges of 300 km (185 mi) and 700 km (435 mi) respectively.
Iran on Tuesday repeated its denial of selling drones to Russia and called for talks with Ukraine to “resolve” the accusations. But Tehran at the same time says it has every right to sell weapons abroad as restrictions on arms sales contained in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal expire in 2020. The US, France and the UK says missile sale would violate nuclear deal. .
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Tuesday he had advised his nation to cut all diplomatic ties with Iran, saying Ukraine would not tolerate Iran’s “pettyness and lies” about the subject.
The White House has directly accused Iran of lying about drone sales, but has been more circumspect about missile sales. Western officials say hundreds of drones have been supplied and in the short term have been used to destroy Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure.
Ukrainian intelligence said 1,750 drones have been delivered, each costing just £20,000 to manufacture. They can be fired from mobile trucks and, despite their low speeds, are difficult to spot until the last minute.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week that Russia wants to acquire 2,400 drones from Iran.
The deepening of the Iranian-Russian alliance was first signaled in June, when Vladimir Putin visited Iran’s new president, Ebrahim Raisi, in Tehran. They met again on September 16 at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where they revealed they were finalizing a new trade and security treaty.
Any Western determination that Iran is supplying intermediate-range missiles is a high-risk move on Iran’s part, as Western officials are already coming under strong political pressure to end talks with the Iran on 2015 nuclear deal due to crackdown on women’s street protests. and students
The Iran talks are effectively suspended until after the US midterm elections, but even after that, Joe Biden will find it impossible to rally support for a renewed deal if Iranian-supplied rockets are hitting Ukrainian cities.
The West has worked on the assumption that Iran wants to keep these talks alive and bring about the lifting of crippling Western sanctions, but many around the current Iranian leadership want to abandon any pretense of improving relations with the West and instead , form a long-term agreement. strategic alliance with Russia and China.
Iran’s GPS-guided Shahed 136 drones can fly up to 1,500 miles launched from trucks outside Ukraine. Thanks to their low cost and large numbers, they have become a major and expensive concern for Ukraine’s air defense, withdrawing some of its systems from the eastern front lines.
They can be fought with small arms, Stinger missiles, GPS jams, anti-aircraft artillery and the German-supplied IRIS-T air defense systems. A Western official said there are many colleagues “looking at what might be the right package to support Ukraine’s air defenses.”
“Given the size of the nation of Ukraine and the infrastructure and military operation you want to protect, there is not enough air defense in the world to create a shield to prevent Russian missiles and drones from entering the territory,” he said. say the former American general. Mark Hertling.
“Drones have a negligible radar signal, so you don’t know they’re there until the lawnmower buzzes about 1,000 feet overhead. They come from all kinds of directions.
“However, they fly quite slowly, so they are much more susceptible to being shot down by small arms and other systems. Tactics have been using them en masse in the hope that some will catch on.”
The UK raised the issue of Iranian drones at a meeting with Iranian diplomats on October 3, and UK officials said they are considering a range of robust responses, likely to include a new UN Security Council resolution. ‘UN and more sanctions.
A formal suspension of talks on the Iran nuclear deal is likely to be one of the points of contention between US officials and Wallace and UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly.
Western officials have predicted that the nature of the war will change dramatically by mid-November, when rains will make most ground maneuvers impossible.
But they expect to see more progress in the south around the city of Kherson before that deadline, given signs that Russia is beginning a partial withdrawal of civilians from the city.