A series of unusual leaks in two natural gas pipelines running from Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany have raised concerns about sabotage, overshadowing the opening of a long-awaited pipeline that will bring Norwegian gas to Poland to boost energy independence of Europe with respect to Moscow.
Seismic stations in Sweden, Norway and Finland recorded two explosions near the leaks on Monday.
Bjorn Lund, a seismologist at Uppsala University who is part of Sweden’s national seismic network, said the first explosion was recorded in the early hours southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm. The last and strongest explosion that night was in the northeast of the island and equivalent to a magnitude 2.3 earthquake.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen says she cannot rule out sabotage after three leaks were found in Nord Stream 1 and 2. (AP)
“We know very well what an underwater explosion looks like. So in this case, there’s no question that it’s not an earthquake,” Lund said.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called the events “an act of sabotage”, while Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said she could not rule it out after three pipeline leaks were detected in the past day Nord Stream 1 and 2, which are full of gas but not delivering the fuel to Europe.
On Tuesday afternoon (Wednesday morning AEST) Frederiksen said his government was treating gas leaks from a Danish island in the Baltic Sea as “deliberate actions”.
Asked if this was an attack on Denmark, Frederiksen replied that the leaks occurred in international waters and “the answer is therefore no”.
On Wednesday, Danish Defense Minister Morten Bodskov will travel to Brussels to meet NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg to discuss the gas leaks.
An energy standoff over Russia’s war in Ukraine halted flows in Nord Stream 1 and prevented them from ever starting in the parallel Nord Stream 2.
Frederiksen, Morawiecki and Polish President Andrzej Duda symbolically opened a valve on a yellow pipe belonging to the Baltic Pipeline, a new system that will bring gas from Norway through Denmark and the Baltic Sea to Poland.
Nord Stream 2 in a 1,200 km long submarine pipeline under the Baltic Sea, which runs from Russia to the Baltic coast of Germany. (9News / Orla Maher)
“The era of Russian dominance in the gas sphere is coming to an end,” Morawiecki declared. “An era marked by blackmail, threats and extortion.”
No official presented evidence of what caused the Nord Stream problems, but in central Europe, where distrust of Russia is high, there were fears that Moscow would sabotage its own infrastructure out of spite or to warn that all pipelines are vulnerable to attack. The leaks surfaced off the coasts of Denmark and Sweden, raising the stakes over whether energy infrastructure in European waters was being targeted and causing a small spike in natural gas prices.
“We can clearly see that this is an act of sabotage, an act that probably means a next step of escalation of the situation we are dealing with in Ukraine,” Morawiecki said.
Anders Puck Nielsen, a researcher at the Maritime Operations Center at the Royal Danish Defense College, said the timing of the leaks was “conspicuous” given the Baltic pipeline ceremony. He said that perhaps someone tried to “send a signal that something could happen with Norwegian gas”.
“The arrow points in the direction of Russia,” said Puck Nielsen.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Polish President Andrzej Duda participate in the opening ceremony of the Baltic Pipe in Budno, Poland. (AP)
“No one in the West is interested in having any kind of instability in the energy market.”
The Kremlin is calling for a weekly investigation
The extent of the damage means the Nord Stream pipelines are unlikely to be able to carry gas to Europe this winter, even if there is political will to bring them online, analysts at the Eurasia Group said.
“Depending on the scale of the damage, the leaks could even mean a permanent shutdown of both lines,” analysts Henning Gloystein and Jason Bush wrote.
They noted that underwater pipelines are designed so that they are not accidentally damaged, and leaks are rare.
“Leaks of this size pose a serious security and environmental hazard, especially if Russia continues to pump gas into the system,” the analysts said.
Workers stand near pipelines during an opening ceremony for the Baltic Pipeline in Budno, Poland. (AP)
Puck Nielsen said of possible sabotage that “technically speaking, this is not difficult. It just requires a boat. It requires some divers who know how to handle explosive devices.”
“But I think if we look at who is really going to benefit from the disruption, from more chaos in the gas market in Europe, I think there’s basically only one player right now that’s really benefiting from more uncertainty, and that’s Russia,” he said. to say.
Asked whether the leaks could have been caused by sabotage, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said “no version could be ruled out.”
“This is an unprecedented situation that requires an urgent investigation. We are very concerned about this news,” he said in a conference call with reporters.
Danish and Swedish maritime authorities issued shipping warnings after leaks were detected in pipelines northeast and southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm.
A major disturbance in the sea off the coast of the Danish island of Bornholm after a series of unusual leaks in two natural gas pipelines running from Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany. (AP)
Denmark established a no-go zone to ensure ships do not approach the leaks. Authorities said boats may lose buoyancy and there may also be a risk of ignition above water and in the air.
Europe struggled for answers
Nord Stream gas pipelines have been at the center of an energy clash between Europe and Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in late February. Falling gas supplies in Russia have sent prices soaring, putting pressure on governments to help ease the pain of sky-high energy bills for households and businesses as winter approaches. The crisis has also raised fears of rationing and recession.
European countries have struggled to find other supplies of gas, which heats homes, generates electricity and runs factories. Poland, for example, was on its way to weaning itself off Russian gas after years of working to secure other sources, including liquefied natural gas, or LNG, from the United States and the Middle East. Germany, on the other hand, is only now scrambling to build LNG terminals.
The Baltic Pipeline is a prominent element in the European Union’s quest for energy security and will begin carrying Norwegian gas through Denmark and along the Baltic Sea to Poland on 1 October.
A leak has been detected in the Nord Stream II gas pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. (AP)
Simone Tagliapietra, an energy expert at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels, said the leaks “cannot be a coincidence” and speculated that they could have been caused by Russian or anti-Russian sabotage.
One possibility is for Russia to signal that it is “breaking forever with Western Europe and Germany” as Poland inaugurates its gas pipeline with Norway, he said.
“In any case, this is a stark reminder of the risk exposure of Europe’s gas infrastructure,” Tagliapietra said.
Polish energy expert Andrzej Sikora said he has been warning of the possibility of attacks on the pipeline infrastructure since the construction of Nord Stream 1 in 2010. The significant pressure drop caused by the leaks was clearly not the the result of “bad welding,” he said. Sikora, head of the think tank of the Energy Studies Institute.
He has been calling for measures to ensure the safety of the Baltic Pipe, which at one point intersects with the two Nord Stream gas pipelines.
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