Live news updates: German recession looms as business confidence hits two-year low

Let the Games begin. No, not the bitter fight between the last two candidates in the Tory leadership election, although you can watch that on the BBC on Monday. This week sees the start of the Commonwealth Games in the UK’s second largest city, Birmingham.

The opening day of the international festival of sport will be marked by that other big event of the British summer 2022 – industrial action. The RMT will hold the latest in a series of walkouts over pay levels for rail industry workers on Wednesday, the same day Aslef, which represents train drivers, counts votes in its strike vote on awards salaries of members. The unrest continues to spread, with telecommunications engineers and dock workers striking or voting for industrial action over wages.

Across the Channel, energy ministers from EU member states will meet in Brussels this week to decide on measures to end Europe’s dependence on Russian fuel supplies. The outlook is not good, according to Europe Express newsletter writer Valentina Pop. On Sunday, President Vladimir Putin will get a chance to represent himself as Navy Fleet Day is celebrated in Russia’s port cities.

If that’s too depressing, perhaps the prospect of significant additional compensation for British postmasters suffering as a result of the flawed Horizon computer system is worth celebrating. Former Supreme Court judge Lord John Dyson is expected to make an announcement on the final settlement for victims of the computer scandal after the government announced an interim payment totaling 19 .5 million pounds in June.

This week’s election news pick is Tunisia’s vote on a new constitution. Politicians and analysts say there is no doubt that the charter, drawn up by populist leader Kais Saied, will be adopted although they expect a low turnout.

Economic data

All eyes will be on Washington on Wednesday for the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate announcement. Expectations are for a tightening of the monetary policy machinery with an increase of 75 basis points. At least one senior Fed governor would like the Federal Open Market Committee to go even further.

Then we’ll get the data on growth, if someone mentioned recession, with quarterly GDP figures from the US, Canada, France, Germany and the mass of Eurozone countries.


We’ve hit peak earnings season with an A to Z (or at least an X) of company names, ironic given that Tuesday’s list includes Alphabet.

The negative impact of the dollar’s strength has been seen in a number of US earnings calls this quarter. It is expected to resurface as an issue with a series of earnings announcements from Silicon Valley tech companies, which have some of the highest percentages of overseas revenue.

Microsoft, which reports on Tuesday, has already cut its dollar-based guidance, and Morgan Stanley issued a note last week saying the dollar could lead to disappointing guidance from Apple when it releases its numbers on Thursday.

Attention will also be on the consumer goods industry with Unilever, Danone, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser, Nestlé and Mondelēz all reporting this week. The concern among analysts is that shoppers are tightening their belts, choosing cheap own-brand supermarket products over multinational brands. The decision by Unilever and others to raise their prices has not made the situation any easier.

Read the full week’s schedule here.

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