Voting in Nairobi on Tuesday. Credit… Luis Tato/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
NAIROBI, Kenya – One is the self-proclaimed champion of the “hustler nation.” The other is a left-wing veteran making his fifth bid for high office. Both are products of Kenya’s calcified and corrupt political system, but they claim they can transform it, if elected president.
The contested race to lead the East African nation of Kenya reaches its climax on Tuesday as 22 million registered voters face a choice between William Ruto, 55, currently the country’s deputy president, and Raila Odinga, a 77-year-old politician. veteran who is running for president for the fifth time.
Days after the vote, the race was a nail-biter, a testament to the maturing of Kenya’s democracy, which, despite its flaws, stands in contrast to other African countries where once high democratic hopes have given way to votes fakes and military coups in recent years. .
For its Western allies, this is one reason why Kenya, a growing technology hub, an important counter-terrorism partner and an anchor of stability in a region wracked by hunger and conflict, is more important than ever.
Still, Kenyan elections have a history of messy and unpredictable affairs. Previous polls have been marred by widespread violence, lengthy court dramas and, in 2017, the killing of a senior election official just days before polling.
So far this time around, the election season has been largely quiet, even with some hopeful signs of change. The corrosive ethnic politics that have dictated Kenyan politics for decades are showing signs of softening. Fewer people fled their homes before the vote, fearing that their houses might burn down, than before.
Kenyans began lining up outside polling stations before dawn on Tuesday, with voting well under way across the country by mid-morning despite reports of opening delays in some areas and difficulties with the biometric system used to identify voters in others.
Results are expected to start rolling in by the end of the week, along with, almost inevitably, claims of manipulation by the loser, so anxious Kenyans will be holding their breath until then.
The two leading contenders are distinguished by both style and substance. Mr. Ruto is the self-proclaimed champion of Kenya’s “seekers” – the masses of frustrated young people, many of them poor, struggling to succeed in life. “Every Hustle Matters,” reads the slogan on his shiny campaign vehicle.
Supporters of William Ruto, currently the vice president of Kenya, in his bid to become the country’s president, during the last day of campaigning, at the Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi. Credit… Marco Longari/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesSupporters of Raila Odinga, who has been running for high office since the 1990s, cheered at his campaign rally at Nairobi’s Kasarani Stadium on Saturday. Credit… Monicah Mwangi/Reuters
Mr Ruto is determined and ambitious, although he also has a reputation for ruthlessness. A decade ago, he faced trial at the International Criminal Court on charges of orchestrating violence after the 2007 election, in which more than 1,200 people died. The case collapsed in 2016 after the Kenyan government withdrew its cooperation and key witnesses recanted their testimony.
Mr Odinga, a scion of a historic Kenyan political dynasty, offers familiarity, having been running for high office since the 1990s, as well as a sense of historic claim. His numerous failures to win the presidency have deepened the sense of grievance among his fellow Luo, Kenya’s fourth-largest ethnic group, that he has never held the country’s top position.
He was widely praised for his choice of a running mate, Martha Karua, a lawyer with a history of principled activism who, if elected, would be Kenya’s first female vice president.
However, above all, Mr Odinga’s success in this election is down to a political alliance, known as “the handshake”, which he achieved in 2018 with President Uhuru Kenyatta.
This agreement ensured that Mr. Kenyatta, from the dominant Kikuyu ethnic group, supported Mr. Odinga and in turn became an enemy of the deputy of Mr. Kenyatta, Mr. Ruto, who has spent much of the campaign criticizing his former boss.
The winning candidate needs 50 percent of the vote, plus one more. But a third candidate, George Wajackoyah, who is campaigning on a platform of legalizing marijuana and, more unusually, the sale in China of hyena testicles, said to have medicinal value, could be a spoiler.
If Wajackoyah can convert his support base, estimated at 3 percent in one poll, into votes, he could deny the major candidates a majority and take the vote to a runoff.