Conservative leadership favorite Liz Truss could give the government a double-digit bounce in the polls once she settles into No.10, according to internal Labor analysis.
A memo written by Keir Starmer’s director of strategy, Deborah Mattinson, claimed the foreign secretary could dramatically improve the Tories’ fortunes.
The document, leaked to The Guardian, comes amid speculation that Truss may be tempted to take advantage of the rebound and call an early general election.
However, the research also suggests that any improvement in the government’s position could be very short-lived, as voters are already worried about aspects of Truss’s character.
“Our focus groups suggest that as voters get to know Truss better, they like him less,” he says. “The serious negatives (unreliability, inauthenticity, U-turns, lack of grip) are starting to crop up and suggest any rebound may be short-lived.”
The latest Opinium poll on Sunday gave Labor its biggest lead in months (eight points), while Starmer has far outscored Truss in the past two weeks when voters were asked who would make the best first minister
However, leaked analysis suggests Labor could fall back again in the coming months as new prime ministers tend to boost their parties in the polls, which then evaporate after three months in office.
“We can expect Truss to get a bounce of at least 6% if he simply performs in line with the average, which would result in the polls being balanced with Labour,” he says.
But party insiders believe it could push for a rebound of 10 points, or even 12 points, as Boris Johnson was a drag in the Conservative polls in his final months in power.
“Johnson was such an important anchor in the Tories and Truss is an unknown so she will probably be closer to 10% or 12%,” said one.
The analysis suggests that Rishi Sunak, who is behind Truss, is less certain of giving the Tories a big boost because his negatives are already better known to the public.
But either candidate would have to hope that the media had “bored” of criticizing the Tories about the Johnson era and welcomed them with “early enthusiasm”.
Mattinson warns: “It will be even more difficult for us to make the cut at this point, making a higher bounce even more likely.”
The bleak economic forecast and the prospect of a recession next year have led to some speculation among Tory MPs that Truss could try to take advantage of any uptick in the polls and call a snap election this autumn.
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He could use his planned emergency budget to cut taxes and announce support for struggling households, creating a short-term feel-good factor around his government.
However, calling a snap election would also be a huge risk for the Conservatives, as voters are unlikely to thank them for sending them to the polls during a cost-of-living crisis.
Mattinson’s analysis says any rebound “may not be sustained” with voters “already noticing aspects of Liz Truss that worry them”.
He adds: “The poll bounce appears to be a triumph of hope over experience for voters, before reality kicks in. Our focus groups so far suggest that voters who know less about Truss they see more positively. But the more they see her, the less in love they are.”
Labor believes Truss’s failure to detail a big support package for families to help with energy bills, and her comments about British workers needing “more graft”, have hurt her.
The note concludes: “We have also seen a backlash to his apparent lack of concern for ordinary working people, as opposed to the very poor, in the fuel crisis. Tax cuts as an alternative do not work. This view is ‘has been exacerbated by the leaked “grafting” tape.