- Nicole made landfall in Florida as a hurricane early Thursday morning.
- Coastal flooding, strong winds, flooding rains and tornadoes are expected along the southeast coast.
- Flooding rain, strong winds and a few tornadoes are possible across the rest of the east Friday into early Saturday.
Nicole made landfall in Florida as a hurricane early Thursday morning, but its impacts, including prolonged coastal flooding, beach erosion, strong winds, heavy surf, heavy rain and tornadoes, will continue to affect other parts of the South- east, as well as the mid-Atlantic and Northeast through the end of the work week.
The center of Nicole made landfall just south of Vero Beach, Florida at 3 a.m. EST. Its maximum sustained winds were 75 mph, making Nicole a Category 1 hurricane.
Now that Nicole is inland, it has weakened into a strong tropical storm.
Nicole is only the fourth November hurricane to make landfall in the continental United States on records dating back to the mid-19th century, and the first to do so in 37 years.
Current status
Radar shows bands of soaking rain rotating across North and Central Florida this morning.
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Nicole’s large wind field means that tropical storm-force winds (39 mph or greater) extend well to the west, north, and east of this center, including much of the Florida peninsula, the coast of Georgia and the coast of South Carolina, according to the National Hurricane. Analysis of the center below.
Winds have reached gusts of 70 mph or more along Florida’s Atlantic coast, including at Playalinda Beach (73 mph), Cape Canaveral (71 mph) and Melbourne (70 mph).
A NOAA tide gauge reported significant coastal flooding this morning in Port Canaveral, Florida with a surge of over 5 feet.
Warnings and watches
All hurricane warnings have been discontinued now that Nicole has weakened to a tropical storm.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for a large area of south, central and north Florida, southern Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina.
Cities under tropical storm warnings include Orlando, Fort Myers, Tampa and Tallahassee in Florida, as well as Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.
A storm surge warning is in effect from Jupiter Inlet, Florida to Glynn County, Georgia, a stretch of the St. Johns in northeastern Florida from Georgetown to where it empties into the Atlantic Ocean north of Jacksonville Beach, and along part of it. of Florida’s Gulf Coast from Pasco County north to Wakulla County. This means that a dangerous and deadly rise in water is expected along the coast in these areas.
Forecast of impacts
Nicole is expected to continue weakening today as it curls northwest over Florida.
It will then be picked up by a cold front that turns the storm northeast over the southeastern states on Friday. Nicole’s remaining energy and moisture will join with this cold front to bring heavy rain and strong winds to the East Coast through Saturday.
Current state, forecast path
(The area shaded in red indicates the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It is important to note that impacts (especially heavy rain, storm surge, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone tend to extend beyond its predicted path . )
Below is a breakdown of what to expect from Nicole. Note that Nicole’s large size means that her impacts extend far from her center, arriving earlier and lasting longer than the passage of her center.
Storm surge, coastal flooding, beach erosion
Persistent onshore winds will cause coastal flooding along parts of the Southeast coast from Florida to the Carolinas through Thursday or in some areas Friday.
Below is the National Hurricane Center’s forecast for maximum storm surge, if it occurs at high tide.
Given coastal flooding during several high tide cycles and waves riding on top of the storm surge, extensive beach erosion and some infrastructure damage is expected along Florida’s east coast and parts of off the coast of Georgia. This is especially the case along the east coast of Florida damaged by Hurricane Ian at the end of September.
Some moderate to major coastal flooding is also possible as far north as South Carolina, including Charleston, where coastal flooding is expected to peak at high tide by mid-morning Thursday. During this highest storm tide, widespread street flooding in the city is possible.
An exception to this general scenario will be a portion of the Gulf Coast of western Florida.
Tides will start much lower than normal due to offshore winds.
But later Thursday, water levels may rise quickly as winds shift onshore once Nicole’s center moves north. This may lead to some coastal flooding and storm surge in the areas shown on the map below peaking Thursday night but also continuing into Friday.
(Maximum storm surge forecast from NHC if storm surge arrives at high tide.)
Tropical storm force winds (winds 39 mph or higher) will continue to spread across much of the Florida peninsula on Thursday.
These strong winds are expected to knock out power and could bring down trees, especially near the coast.
While Nicole will have weakened, strong gusty winds are possible across parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia through Friday.
The remnant of Nicole joining a cold front and stronger jet energy could produce strong gusty winds Friday night into Saturday morning to the Northeast from the Delmarva Peninsula and Chesapeake Bay north to New England, especially near the coast.
Those wind gusts could cause scattered tree damage and at least some power outages Friday through Saturday.
Rainfall
Heavy rain has already reached Florida and should spread north into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas by Friday.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected in parts of central and northern Florida, including some areas flooded by Hurricane Ian’s rain.
Parts of the river St. Johns are still above flood stage after Ian’s rain about six weeks ago. According to the NWS, the slow-falling St. Johns in recent weeks after Ian transitioned to a slow rise, then to stable levels above flood stage after Nicole’s rain.
Some minor flooding is also expected along stretches of the Peace and Little Manatee rivers in west Florida, which experienced record-breaking flooding during Ian. But this flood will not be anywhere near the magnitude of Ian’s flood.
Nicole’s moisture, combined with an approaching cold front, will result in deep rain for the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast Friday through Saturday.
A widespread rainfall of 1 to 5 inches is possible from parts of southern Florida into the Carolinas, Georgia, mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with locally higher amounts.
This could lead to localized flash flooding and some river flooding, especially in the Appalachians and adjacent foothills, as well as parts of the Northeast.
Tornadoes
As with most storms that make landfall, a few isolated tornadoes and damaging storm-force wind gusts are also possible in Nicole’s rainbands Thursday through Friday.
Here’s a look at the weather.
-Thursday through Thursday night: northeast Florida, southeast Georgia, central and coastal South Carolina and southern North Carolina.
-Friday to Friday night: Central and Eastern Carolina to the Mid-Atlantic.
Recap of the storm so far
Nicole strengthened to a hurricane Wednesday evening as it made landfall over Grand Bahama. A wind gust of 61 mph was recorded Wednesday evening on the island.
Large, strong waves and coastal flooding are affecting much of the southeast coast. Water levels topped about 2 feet above normal along Florida’s Atlantic coast at Wednesday morning’s high tide.
Flooding was reported around homes on Anastasia Island near St. Augustine and on some streets in West Palm Beach on Wednesday. A seawall was breached by storm surge in St. Lucie, near Jensen Beach. Beach erosion undermined a structure and wrecked a hotel parking lot in Daytona Beach Shores.
Storm surge flooding was also captured on video Wednesday morning in Marsh Harbor in the Bahamas’ Abaco Islands, which were hit by Hurricane Dorian in 2019. Winds reached 60 mph in Hope Town, according to the Bahamas Department of Meteorology.
Minor street flooding was also reported around Wednesday morning’s high tide in Charleston, South Carolina.
Check back with us on weather.com for important updates on Nicole.
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