Australia’s foreign intelligence chief says there should be no automatic assumption that Australia would join the United States in any war with China over Taiwan.
Key Points:
- Paul Symon to step down as head of ASIS
- Says war between major powers no longer ‘unimaginable’
- Says evacuating citizens from Afghanistan in 2021 was ‘very intense’
Australian Secret Intelligence Service (ASIS) director-general Paul Symon said any such decision should be made with Australia’s national interest in mind.
Symon was speaking to the ABC in a rare interview to mark his impending retirement. His five-year term ends shortly.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong is expected to announce a new head of ASIS in the next two weeks, one of the most important appointments she will make.
ASIS is the equivalent of Britain’s MI6 and the United States’ Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
Its main function is to recruit well-placed sources in foreign countries who are able to pass on information relevant to Australia’s interests, to use the words of Mr. Symon, sources as close as possible to “the place of power”.
The imminent threat of war in Taiwan
Symon’s successor faces the possibility that China and the United States will go to war over Taiwan within the next five to ten years.
Beijing views the self-governing island as a breakaway province that should eventually be reunited with mainland China.
The United States has a deliberately vague agreement to provide Taiwan with the means to protect itself.
But US President Joe Biden has repeatedly said his forces would defend the island in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Taiwan has also been flexing its muscles in recent months, conducting military exercises with its fighter jets and missiles. (AP: Johnson Lai)
Mr Symon was asked how likely he thought it was that Australia would automatically join the US if that scenario played out.
“I don’t think anything is automatic,” he said.
“I think it always has to be put in context and at the end of the day an Australian government will always act in the national interest, the national interest of Australia.
“Any political leader of any nation-state in the world knows that he will ultimately act in the interests of the nation at the time.”
Symons said he doesn’t know if a war between the U.S. and China is a real possibility.
“The suggestion that these things are preordained, they are not,” he said.
“There’s a broad license for leaders and humans to make a difference and step up and change the paths and settings you’re in.”
Images of Chinese warships conducting exercises have been widely circulated this year. (Reuters: Tingshu Wang)
During his tenure as head of ASIS, Symon has seen Australia’s relationship with China rapidly sour over trade disputes, the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic and Beijing’s growing presence in the Pacific.
Asked if he believed Australia could get to the stage where it will restore a good relationship with China without jeopardizing its values or interests, Symons said it comes down to “human agency” and “the centrality of leaders to adjust settings”.
“I think for all the right reasons, 10 or 15 years ago, the Australian public [and] the Australian government was very optimistic about its relationship with China,” he said.
“Businesses were very optimistic and they had every right to be. We were the beneficiaries of this relationship with China.
“What has changed? Humans have made calculations that have changed the nature of the relationship.
“Can we be optimistic? Well, again, [the] The crystal ball is opaque in that sense because at one level, on a linear path, it’s hard to be as optimistic as we were 10 or 15 years ago, but I don’t think these issues follow linear paths.”
Symon said that “for our children and grandchildren” we can get off the linear path.
“When I say we leave, I’m talking globally, the relationship between many nations, [and] put a little more emphasis on peace and stability rather than conflict.”
How Ukraine changed the spy game
Symon said he thought now more than ever, the Australian public should be more involved in intelligence discussions.
“It is no longer unimaginable, the prospect of a major power conflict,” he said.
“I think it’s more important than ever that the public be informed by people like me, by national security officials, and that we elevate the discussion to the comfort level of the government and the public in general.”
Former Defense Minister Stephen Smith and former Australian Defense Force (ADF) chief Sir Angus Houston are conducting a comprehensive review of the ADF.
Its terms of reference warn that the world is “undergoing a major strategic realignment” and Australia needs to examine everything from its base to its arms spending.
Symon said they will present their findings to the public, as well as a “highly classified version for the government” early next year.
“I think it will be another very important milestone as we look back at the history of Australia, as we look at the way we’ve told the story about the challenges of the times and the future,” he said.
Symon says Russia’s war in Ukraine, now in its ninth month, has shown how sharing declassified information can help allies and the public. (AP: LIBKOS)
Symon said the Russian invasion of Ukraine this year has signaled a change in the way intelligence is shared with the public and other countries.
“I think one of the hallmarks of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the extent to which the American intelligence community, in particular, declassified intelligence,” he said.
“It helped European governments in particular, and the public, to think about or better understand what an appropriate reaction to an incursion of this nature should be.
“Should we provide aid, be it lethal or non-lethal, aid? Should sanctions be imposed? I think when you declassify intelligence in a proper way, you give the public an opportunity to really debate it and think about what’s at stake here.”
Symons believes the war will have a lasting impact on the way intelligence agencies operate.
“I think what happened in the early stages of Ukraine and Russia has probably set the bar high for intelligence officials to do everything they can to help inform not only the government, but also the public,” he said.
Paul Symon’s most disturbing moment as a spymaster
Symon’s first two years in office focused heavily on the dangers to Australians and their sources in the Middle East, particularly Iraq and Afghanistan.
“I care about the safety of our people,” he said.
“I am always relieved when our activities are over and my people return home safely.
“But also [I feel] gratitude, not just to my own people, but to a range of people and institutions across Australia who help our organization do what we do.”
After a 20-year mission in Afghanistan, the last Australian troops withdrew from the country in June 2021.
Australian and US forces withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021. Months later, the Taliban regained power. (Australian Defense Force)
By the time US troops followed in late August, the country was firmly back in Taliban hands.
Australia scrambled to evacuate its citizens and visa holders from the country as Taliban fighters surrounded Kabul airport.
Symons described the evacuation mission as a moment of peak concern during his tenure.
“I think Kabul last year was very intense, a very difficult situation that unfolded before the world,” he said.
“I had people there, I had responsibilities and obligations with sources in Afghanistan that we needed to repatriate out of Afghanistan and we did. We were successful, at great risk and with great ingenuity, frankly.”
Symon declared the mission to extract citizens and intelligence sources a success.
“It was such a difficult time and the risks were significant, but we successfully achieved the mission we set out to do, largely to give credence to and fulfill the pact we have with our sources,” Symon said. .
“They build a relationship with us. They need to feel that our professionalism will protect them, protect their identities and ultimately, in a situation like this, get them out of harm’s way, including their families. And we followed through on that pact.” .
The government was criticized for leaving behind hundreds of Australians, as well as Afghan interpreters, embassy staff, guards and aid workers.
Asked whether an intelligence agency like ASIS should have known the Taliban were coming back to power, he said: “That’s very true.”
“I think we need to think clearly about why the environment moved so quickly from under our feet,” he said.
Australian troops arrived to chaotic scenes at Kabul airport after the country fell back into Taliban control. (ADF supplied)
“I wish I could answer in very clear terms…exactly why that was.
“War is a very complex activity: human will, morality, motivation fluctuated very quickly, and I think there were politics at play that made a lot of people think very carefully about what possibilities there were of power maintain the will of the people and the will of the government”.
Symons said it was ultimately the job of intelligence agencies to help governments know and understand what was going on.
“I think we did a very good job; certainly in the last stages we were able to help the government know and understand what was going on, the decisions made around the embassy whether we kept it open or closed,” he said.
“All that information was provided to the government, but right up until the end, in those last moments, the intelligence agencies also passed on some really good intelligence that saved lives for our people on the ground.”
The full interview with John Lyons and Geraldine Doogue can be heard on Saturday…