Our Jones Knows reporter attacks the first Premier League games of 2023…
Use the Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Take a look back at some of the funniest Premier League moments from 2022 onwards
Tottenham vs Aston Villa New Year’s Day 2pm Live on Sky Sports: PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!
Tottenham are always one defeat away from a full-blown crisis – one could be getting here.
I have a lot of faith in Antonio Conte’s methods, but his contract situation, amid reports of ongoing negotiations, coupled with his team’s woeful intensity early in games, will bite them at some point.
And when pricing the games here, the market is heavily skewed in favor of Spurs, who are as thin at 8/13 with Sky Bet to beat an improving Aston Villa.
Conte’s men have conceded first in each of their last nine games in all competitions and have gone 2-0 down in six of those. It’s a solid body of data that points to serious flaws in Tottenham’s approach to games.
Finally, a smart and crafty team with a good defensive nous will make the Spurs pay. Villa could be that team under Unai Emery and have shown really positive signs with their level of performance against Manchester United, Brighton and Liverpool. Emery’s side deserved their wins against United and Brighton when judging the performance data and created a good expected goals figure of 1.44 against Liverpool in a game to concede first in Jurgen Klopp’s side is never ideal from a state of play point of view.
Image: Aston Villa have impressed under Unai Emery’s watch
There are many ways to put Aston Villa next to your money. Keeping it simple and backing them to avoid defeat at 5/4 with Sky Bet stands out as the main play, but it’s also worth considering Villa to score first at 15/8 and Villa to win at half-time at 4/ 1.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Aston Villa to win or draw (5/4 with Sky Bet – Bet here!)
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea New Year’s Day 4.30pm Live on Sky Sports: PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!
The match prices look right to me as Chelsea are likely to do the job against that extra quality in the final third, especially with Morgan Gibbs-White missing for the hosts, but Forest will dig in and cause problems by the Londoners at various points.
One area that can be fertile for them is game pieces.
I thought Chelsea looked shaky when defending their box under pressure from corners and free kicks against Bournemouth, with the Cherries creating a good 0.29 expected goals value through set pieces with Lloyd Kelly and Dominic Solanke both missing the target near. Since Graham Potter took over, Chelsea’s overall defensive metrics from set pieces have flatlined. They’ve sent 33 shots from those stages against an expected goals backdrop of 3.18 – only six teams have performed worse since the day Potter took over.
With that in mind, Forest’s centre-backs are certainly worth looking at to threaten.
Since Joe Worrall and Willy Boly paired up four games ago, they have had eight shots between them and that doesn’t include Boly’s disallowed goal against Manchester United.
Worrall is 13/8 with Sky Bet and Boly is 2/1 to have at least one shot in the player shot market. Both prices look great, and I’ll back the 4/5 on offer to have at least a shot against Chelsea as part of my New Year’s double 3/1.