WARSAW, Sept 30 (Reuters) – The massive leaks that suddenly erupted in the Nord Stream gas pipelines running from Russia to Europe under the Baltic Sea have generated many theories but few clear answers about who or what caused the damage.
Here’s what we know and what’s been said so far:
WHO IS TO BLAME?
So far, most governments and officials have avoided direct finger-pointing, although some have given stronger hints than others.
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European Union states say they believe the damage was caused by sabotage, but have stopped short of naming anyone. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said it was “very obvious” who was behind it, but did not say who it was.
The Kremlin said accusations of Russian responsibility were “stupid” and Russian officials have said Washington had a reason for wanting to sell more liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe.
President Vladimir Putin called the incident “unprecedented sabotage” and “an act of international terrorism,” while the head of Russia’s intelligence agency, Sergei Naryshkin, said the West was “everything he could” to cover up the perpetrators.
The White House has dismissed the charges that he was responsible.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said it was too early to point fingers and a full investigation was needed. “In terms of an attack, or damage to the pipeline, at this point I think there’s a lot of speculation,” he said.
European leaders and Moscow say they cannot rule out sabotage. Map of Nord Stream pipelines and locations of reported leaks
WHY SABOTAGE A DRIVE?
German Navy chief Jan Christian Kaack told German newspaper Die Welt in Monday’s edition that on the day the leaks were found, although he appeared to be speaking earlier: “Russia has also built up a considerable capacity under the water. At the bottom of the Baltic Sea, but also in the Baltic Sea. Atlantic, there is some critical infrastructure like pipes or underwater cables for IT.”
Alongside Nord Stream, a new pipeline has been built between gas-producing Norway and Poland, which has been seeking to end its dependence on Russian energy, making the region highly sensitive for energy security. europe
“(Russia) can intimidate the Europeans through an act of sabotage. Because if they can blow up these pipelines on the bottom of the Baltic Sea, they could also blow up the new pipeline,” said Kristine Berzina, senior security and defense researcher to the German Marshall Fund.
However, if it was an act of sabotage, it has damaged pipelines that were built by Kremlin-controlled Gazprom ( GAZP.MM ) and its European partners at a cost that ran into billions of dollars.
The damage also means Russia loses an element of leverage it still had over Europe, which has been scrambling to find other gas supplies for the winter, even if the Nord Stream pipelines weren’t pumping gas when the leaks were discovered , analysts say.
Whoever or whatever is to blame, Ukraine can also be a beneficiary. Kyiv has long called for Europe to halt all purchases of Russian fuel, although some gas still reaches Europe through its territory. The Nord Stream disruption brings Kyiv’s call for a complete Russian fuel embargo closer to reality.
HOW COULD NORD STREAM HAVE BEEN DAMAGED?
Experts say the extent of the damage and the fact that the leaks are far apart in two different pipelines indicate the act was intentional and well-orchestrated.
Seismologists in Denmark and Sweden said they had recorded two powerful explosions on Monday in the vicinity of the leaks and that the explosions were in the water, not under the seabed.
A British defense source told Sky News the attack was likely premeditated and detonated from afar using underwater mines or other explosives.
“Something big caused these explosions, which means … Russia could do it. In theory, the U.S. could do it too, but I don’t really see the motivation,” Oliver Alexander, a open source intelligence analyst.
The United States had long called for Europe to end its reliance on Russian gas, he said, but Washington had little obvious motivation to act now because Nord Stream was no longer pumping gas to Europe at the time the leaks were found , even though the pipelines had pressurized gas inside.
“They already managed to stop Nord Stream 2. It was already dead in the water, it wasn’t going anywhere,” he said.
Analysts say the damage may have been caused by devices that are commercially available, but given the scale and precision, it is more likely to have been done by an actor with access to more sophisticated technology.
Russia says it believes a state actor was involved.
“It is very difficult to imagine that such an act of terrorism could have happened without the participation of a state of some kind,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “This is a very dangerous situation that requires an urgent investigation.”
American news channel CNN, citing three sources, reported that European security officials had observed Russian navy support ships and submarines not far from the sites of the Nord Stream leaks. Asked about the report, Peskov said there had been a much larger NATO presence in the area.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
At Russia’s request, the UN Security Council is meeting on Friday to discuss the damage to the pipelines, while the Europeans continue their investigations.
For now, however, a more direct spat between Russia and the West could worsen tensions that have already spiraled over the war in Ukraine, said Marek Swierczynski, a defense analyst at Polish think tank Polityka Insight.
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Reporting from Reuters bureaus, with additional reporting by Sabine Seibold; Edited by Alexander Smith and Edmund Blair
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