The impact of the pre-season bye would make two clubs nervous, one in particular.
And why the Swans and Magpies round 22 clash could be telling in a concern for the black and white’s fairytale run ahead of two massive preliminary finals.
Here’s every club’s burning question ahead of finals week three and Fox Footy’s match-by-match commentators in our ultimate weekly preview: the blower!
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AFL FINALS WEEK THREE (All times AEST)
GEELONG CATS V BRISBANE LIONS
First Preliminary Final – Friday 16 September, 19:50 at the MCG
How to watch on Fox Footy: Channel 504 from 6.50pm, presented by Garry Lyon with Nathan Buckley, Nick Riewoldt, Alastair Lynch, Kath Loughnan and Jon Ralph.
The Cats’ burning question: Does the pre-finals bye come back to haunt them?
While also clearly relevant to Sydney, Geelong will be particularly weary of the impact of the pre-finals bye with so much at stake – being red flag favorites in the post-season that finished two games at the top of the scale . As highlighted on Fox Footy’s AFL 360, winning the qualifying final has become a disadvantage since the introduction of the pre-final bye. Between 2000 and 2015, 75% of teams that won the Qualifying Finals won the Preliminary Finals and 0% lost the Preliminary Final. Then, since the pre-final bye was introduced from 2016, only 20% of teams have won the preliminary final and 40% have lost the preliminary final. Of course, the Cats were also below their best form against Collingwood a fortnight ago and just managed the win and, to add more pressure, are 1-5 in preliminary finals since 2011.
“We’re now five seasons (pre-final bye) and only once have the two teams that have won the qualifying final gone on to win the preliminary, that’s a disadvantage,” Saints senior Leigh Montagna said. AFL 360.
“Both teams playing a game in 27 days, they’d want to get their training block right…just hope they haven’t been caught on the back foot because of this system.”
Asked whether the rain block or mindset is more important, Montagna said: “You have to train for it, you have to be ready for it physically and mentally, you need the combination of both.”
The Lions’ burning question: Which version of Brisbane comes out?
It was a tale of two halves for Brisbane in their epic win over Melbourne last weekend. The Lions didn’t look for a fight for most of the first half and looked headed for another premature finals exit with Chris Fagan trailing by as many as 28 points to the first-placed watermen before the break. That was until something clicked, and it clicked big, with the Lions turning up the heat in the second half to look like a completely different side and run over the top in a complete performance. It included Fagan’s side producing a second-half pressure score of 214, their highest in a half since 2020. But will that same rampant Lions team come off the first bounce against Geelong this weekend? Or will it be the team that has struggled to deliver on the big stage previously,
“Their willingness to put their bodies on the line and really commit to their bodies early in the game was poor. So then to be able to come out at halftime and do what they did made it even more incredible.” Saints champion Nick Riewoldt told Fox Footy’s. on the couch of Brisbane’s performance against Melbourne.
“We give credit to Chris Fagan for the change, because it was all mental after the break. The way they came out and responded and committed their bodies and applied defensive effort, it was huge. You just didn’t see it coming.”
SYDNEY SWANS V COLLINGWOOD
Second Preliminary Final – Saturday 17 September, 4.45pm at the SCG
How to watch on Fox Footy: Channel 504 from 3.45pm, presented by Sarah Jones with Jason Dunstall, David King, Leigh Montagna, Dermott Brereton and Jon Ralph followed by Better on the ground
The Swans’ burning question: Will they be “100 percent” ready for the maniacal magpies?
Sydney go into this one as legitimate favorites after an ill-fated win over Melbourne a fortnight ago that continued their pulsating form in the back half of the season, and with the game being played at the SCG. But if there’s one team they wouldn’t want to face even five per cent below their best form, it’s Collingwood. We saw a fortnight ago how much the Magpies challenged and almost beat the top-flight Cats, who were not at their best. Also, given the impact of the pre-finals bye, the Swans will want to ensure they have prepared as well as they could have given Craig McRae’s valiant side will be brimming with confidence going out, no doubt , of his two most impressive performances. season and looks ready to give it his best chance. The Swans have been heralded for their defensive pressure all season and how well-drilled they are on the ground, and could face their biggest test yet in terms of opposition who could spread those traits.
“(Collingwood is) instant reaction, no lag. They’re doing something, or they’re running forward or running back, they’re the punishment pies,” Roos legend David King said. AFL 360.
“If the Swans blink for a second, (Jack) Ginnivan comes through on goal, (Brodie) Mihocek comes through on goal. They try to outnumber you, all of a sudden you’re not six back, you have to fly disorganized.
“If Sydney aren’t 100 per cent, and this is the bye week we’re talking about, one game in 25-odd days. If they’re not 100 per cent ready to go, they’ll be hit between the eyes.”
The burning question for the Magpies: have they met their match?
While the Swans will need to be at their best, Collingwood present arguably their worst matchup in the competition. The Pies, who rank second in the AFL in pressure, have been praised for their intense heat that forces turnovers and helps them score. But the Swans top the competition in pressing and essentially beat the Magpies at their own game a few weeks ago. McRae even admitted this week that he “coached really badly” in his side’s Round 22 loss to Sydney after “failing” to prepare them for the SCG in another key element as they look to turn the script around. So will Collingwood have learned from the loss, which ended their 11-game winning streak, or will it be played again on the Swans’ terms?
“Their pressing game is what has brought them to this position. But the Pies will meet their match,” Montagna said AFL 360.
“Collingwood won’t get this game on their terms. The last time they played is a really good benchmark, it was just a few weeks ago. It was Collingwood’s second-biggest (pressure) differential gap for the season
“It was particularly in the front half of the ground (for Sydney) where we know Collingwood love to get their sling.
“Sydney don’t allow that, they’ve trained for it and played that way now for the back half of the season. When there’s a loose ball, watch them swarm. They were able to pick up and disarm Collingwood’s counter attack from the back half.
“I think it’s going to be a real challenge for Collingwood to do it again.”