Tens of thousands of A-level students are at risk of losing a place at their favorite university next week after new analysis found a sharp drop in top grades compared to last year.
Amid warnings that this year’s admissions round would be the “toughest in memory”, research suggests a 10 percentage point drop in the number of A and A* grades in England, Wales and Ireland from North, following the re-introduction of exams this summer.
After two years of higher average grades during the pandemic, when exams were canceled and work was assessed by the teacher, the government asked regulators to set limits so that the grades, to be published on Thursday, were at midway between those of 2019 and 2021, with ratings to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023.
After record results last year, when 44.8% of grades were A or A* at A level, this is forecast to drop to 35% (compared to 25.5% in 2019) .
While almost one in five (19.1%) grades were A* last year, this year the proportion is expected to drop to 13.5%. Similarly, the number of A* to C grades is expected to drop from 88.5% in 2021 to 82%.
The change in results is likely to cause a major political upheaval in a year that has seen four different education secretaries.
The plan for this year’s A-levels was first launched by Gavin Williamson, who he blamed for the government’s chaotic approach to education during the pandemic. The plan is now overseen by James Cleverly, who may be given a new role when a new prime minister is appointed in September.
Labor has accused the Tories of a “miserable failure to help children recover from the pandemic” and of not putting enough extra measures in place for this year’s exams.
One expert said this year’s experience would mark a fundamental change that will last a decade, as demand for higher education places remains high.
“Instead of universities competing for students, students are fighting over limited degree places,” said Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter.
“Thousands of students with relatively high marks are likely to be disappointed and fail to secure their first choices,” he added.
This year’s results are also expected to show an improvement in the performance of male candidates, who are likely to have benefited from the reintroduction of the exams.
They will also reflect changing subject preferences, with psychology growing in popularity as the take-up of English continues to decline.
Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Center for Education and Employment Research at the University of Buckingham, has calculated that if each candidate drops an average of two grades due to the post-pandemic rebalancing, up to 60,000 students who licitin the university could be at risk. of losing his favorite place.
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“The 2022 A-level results are potentially the most interesting in years,” Smithers said. “The return of the exams will allow us to start measuring the impact of the teacher evaluation.
“The increase in top marks has been extraordinary: they went from 25.5% of the total in 2019 to 44.8% in 2021,” he said, adding: “Some candidates were given a false idea of their talent and will have made the wrong decisions. , while universities could not differentiate between applicants as accurately and fairly as they were used to.
“Universities have reacted to the rise of teacher evaluation in higher grades by increasing requirements and reducing firm offers. For many of the students who have finished their studies this year, the hard work has not ended with the high school, but results day begins again in the search for the coveted places.
“As a result of reducing the top grades, around 40,000 applicants could lose their first choices, although it could be as many as 60,000.”
However, there will still be 80,000 marks higher than in 2019, when the last exams were taken, and Smithers said that while there would be pressure on senior courses, there would be plenty of places elsewhere.
With the return of exams, which were reintroduced with adaptations to reflect the pandemic disruption, Smithers predicted that boys will start to catch up with girls, whose results have improved with the exam break and use of teacher evaluation.
Looking at subject trends, provisional figures show numbers studying psychology have increased by 10%, making it the second most popular level after maths. Numbers studying English continue to fall, by around a third since 2009 to 62,000 in 2021, with a further 8% fall in 2022.
Major said: “This year will be the toughest admissions round in living memory for many applicants, and it signals a fundamental shift that will last a decade.”
He said this new, more competitive era of university admissions was being driven by rising numbers of 18-year-olds, a rebalancing by some universities reducing places after taking on extra students during Covid , and an impending recession that cuts off job alternatives.
“We must do everything we can to ensure our most disadvantaged and vulnerable students are not unfairly turned away as candidates go to great lengths to achieve the most sought-after degrees.” He expressed concern that the gap in A-level results between state and private pupils had also widened.
“The biggest challenge for schools in the post-pandemic era will be to narrow the academic divides that have opened up; if they don’t, it will leave a generation permanently scarred.”
Chris Hale, acting chief executive of Universities UK, which represents the higher education sector, said most students were expected to get their first choice course this year with many high-quality courses available for cleaning.
“They have taken into account that this year’s candidates will probably have a lower ratio of marks than the last two years with the return of exams after the pandemic disruption. Decisions are not made on marks alone.”
A Department for Education spokesman said: “UCAS expects the majority of students to secure their place at their firm choice this year and, in preparation, we have focused on working with universities to ensure that offers reflect the grades students will receive this summer.
“Competition for places at the most selective universities has always been high and this year is no different, but there will always be plenty of options for students either at another university, through compensation or career options d high quality as prestigious and rewarding. as academic paths”.