Flu cases are rising earlier than usual, and pediatric hospitals are seeing waves of respiratory syncytial virus, commonly known as RSV. There are also signs that Covid-19 cases are increasing in some parts of the country as Americans move into the colder months.
Covid-19 precautions early in the pandemic, and their near-disappearance of late, are a big part of the reason flu and RSV are making a comeback, doctors say. Measures such as masking and social distancing also suppressed rates of other viruses, now leaving those of us who have not had a recent infection with lower levels of protection.
“It’s very clear that as people are relaxing their Covid precautions, it’s very likely that we’ll also see an increase in flu at the same time,” says Jay Varma, director of the Cornell Center for Pandemic Prevention and Response in New York City. York and doctor. and epidemiologist at Weill Cornell Medicine.
All three viruses share similar symptoms, including cough, sore throat, runny nose and fever, making it difficult to know what you have without a test. You can test for Covid-19 at home and most healthcare professionals can test for flu and RSV.
Concerns ahead for Covid-19
Protection from vaccines and prior infection have dramatically reduced the severity of Covid-19 infections since the start of the pandemic. However, the virus remains dangerous, especially for the elderly or people with certain health conditions. Less severe cases can still make you feel sick for a week or more and affect your home, disrupting work and school. And even mild infections can cause long-term symptoms associated with long-term Covid-19, such as brain fog, extreme fatigue and rapid heartbeat.
“Particularly for people who are over 50 and who are immunocompromised, Covid remains a very real threat,” says Celine Gounder, a senior fellow at the Kaiser Family Foundation and an infectious disease specialist and epidemiologist.
The most recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show a decrease in the national number of Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The 21-day average of new weekly cases declined about 31% on Oct. 19 compared to the previous 21 days. moving average The seven-day average of hospitalizations fell 4% to 3,156, and the 21-day moving average of new deaths fell 13% to 388.
However, it is difficult to accurately monitor Covid-19 cases, as most people use rapid tests at home, which are usually not reported. The CDC is also reporting on Covid-19 cases less frequently, issuing weekly instead of daily updates starting in October. The most reliable indicator of Covid-19 cases is hospitalization data, says Dr. Varma, but hospitalizations tend to lag behind cases by about two to three weeks.
“We think this is the calm before the storm,” says Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist who writes the popular newsletter “Your Local Epidemiologist.” “We think in November it will really start to take off nationally.”
Newer Omicron sub-variants are claiming worldwide, with some increases in other countries. US CDC weekly data indicate that subvariants BQ.1.1 and BQ.1, descendants of BA.5, the dominant Omicron subvariant in the US, account for more than 16% of cases as of October 21, compared with 11% the previous week. Another subvariant, XBB, is driving an increase in cases in Singapore.
The number of cases and hospitalizations in some Western European countries is starting to rise, which is often a harbinger of things to come in the United States. Sewage monitoring in the Northeast also indicates that cases are beginning to increase. Doctors worry that so few people have received the updated version of the booster vaccine so far.
Flu season is starting soon
At the same time, the flu is rearing its head earlier than usual with the CDC citing increased activity across most of the country, especially in the southeastern and south-central states.
Rick Zimmerman, a professor of family medicine at the University of Pittsburgh, has been monitoring the flu for more than a decade and says he hasn’t seen activity this early since the 2009 flu pandemic.
Public health officials recommend that everyone 6 months and older get a flu shot ideally by the end of this month, and say it’s safe to get a flu shot and a Covid-19 booster at the same time time The dominant flu strain is an H3N2 and appears to be well adapted to this year’s vaccine, says Dr. Zimmerman.
“It takes about two weeks for really good immunity after vaccination, so get your flu shot now because we’re seeing the onset,” he says.
Last flu season, about half of people 6 months and older in the U.S. got the flu shot, the CDC estimates. Projections are similar for this year, according to a survey by the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases.
It’s not yet clear whether the U.S. flu season, while starting earlier, will be more severe in hospitalizations and deaths. The season was bad in some parts of the southern hemisphere like Australia, which already had its winter, but not as bad in other places like South Africa.
RSV rebound
Rates of another common virus, respiratory syncytial virus, are also rising earlier than usual, filling beds in pediatric hospitals.
RSV is a virus that infects the respiratory tract. Usually a mild cold in healthy people, RSV can be dangerous and even fatal in very old and young people, especially babies under 1 year old.
The only way to gain immunity to RSV is exposure because there is no vaccine, notes Dr. Gounder. RSV cases declined during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. The respiratory virus that usually circulates in the fall and winter re-emerged in the summer of 2021. Young children who have not been exposed to the virus in recent years are now being affected.
Public health experts say the same precautions that protect against other respiratory viruses help prevent RSV transmission: washing your hands often, covering your coughs and sneezes or using a mask, staying at home if you have symptoms and improve ventilation in indoor spaces. .
Parents should seek medical attention if a child has trouble breathing, gasps and wheezes, or coughs so hard he can’t breathe, Dr. Gounder says. Difficulty feeding and sinking into the soft tissues around the collarbones and between the ribs are also worrying signs.