The Rangers announced that they have signed Jacob deGrom to a five-year contract. It’s $185 million guaranteed, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan ( Twitter link ). The deal includes a full no-trade clause and a conditional option for the 2028 campaign that could bring his total value to $222 million, according to Passan. deGrom is a client of VC Sports Group.
“We are thrilled that Jacob deGrom has decided to become a Texas Ranger,” general manager Chris Young said in the press release. “For several seasons, Jacob has been an outstanding Major League pitcher and gives us a dominant player at the top of our rotation. One of our main goals this offseason is to strengthen our starting pitching, and we are adding one of the best.” .
It’s the biggest move of the offseason so far and the latest massive free agent strike in Arlington. The Rangers committed more than half a million dollars to the trio of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray last winter. It was designed to lay the groundwork for a full return to contention in 2023. The Rangers didn’t see the desired steps forward from a win-loss perspective in 2022, largely due to a lackluster rotation behind Gray and Martín Pérez. Texas has suggested they were ready to attack the top end of the market to shore up the biggest weakness on the roster. They’ve done it with a shocking five-year deal for arguably the best pitcher in the sport.
deGrom is one of the most accomplished arms of his generation. Although he fell in the ninth round of the 2010 draft and didn’t reach the majors until just minutes shy of his 26th birthday in 2014, he immediately established himself as one of the best pitchers in the game. deGrom worked to a 2.69 ERA in his first 22 starts to secure NL Rookie of the Year honors and begin a career as one of the league’s best pitchers.
The right-hander posted a 2.54 to 3.53 ERA in each of the next three seasons, twice receiving Cy Young honors. Already a borderline ace, he took his game to new heights in 2018. deGrom pitched 217 innings with an MLB-best 1.70 ERA to secure his first Cy Young. The Mets added a $120.5 million extension to him after that season. He continued to repeat as the top pitcher on the senior circuit, claiming a second Cy Young with a 2.43 ERA in 204 innings. He had another dominant season in the abbreviated 2020 campaign and had one of the greatest first halves ever in ’21.
Through his first 15 starts that year, the four-time All-Star posted a microscopic 1.08 ERA while striking out an incredible 45.1% of opposing batters. He was bothered by some minor health issues in the first few months, culminating in an injured list with a forearm strain around the All-Star Break. While this was not initially expected to lead to an extended absence, deGrom would end up missing the rest of the season. That September, New York manager Sandy Alderson said deGrom had been dealing with a low-grade tear in his UCL, a claim that raises eyebrows considering the right-hander had Tommy surgery John before making his MLB debut. The pitcher refuted that, calling his ligament “perfectly fine.”
After a full offseason, deGrom was expected to return in 2022. Late in spring training, he felt some soreness during a pitching program between starts. He was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his scapula and locked up again, and the injury cost him the first four months of last season. By the time he returned to the mound in early August, more than a full calendar year had passed.
With that kind of layoff, one would expect deGrom to show some signs of rust. Instead, he returned as his best, immediately dominating opponents once again. The Stetson product averaged an absurd 98.9 MPH on his fastball and 92.6 MPH on the cutter/slider that serves as his secondary offering. He struck out 42.7% of opponents against a minuscule 3.3% walk rate. Opposing hitters swung and missed on 21.1% of their total pitches; no other starting pitcher with more than 50 innings had a strikeout rate above 17%. He struck out eight in six innings in his lone playoff start against San Diego.
A three-homer outing in Atlanta to end his season bumped deGrom’s ERA to 3.08 in his shortened season, but there’s no doubt he’s still capable of peak performance level if healthy. No pitcher on the planet is as dominant as deGrom per start. Predictably, he opted out of the final $32.5 million in his deal with the Mets at the end of the season.
As great as this signing might be for the Rangers, there’s certainly a lot of risk involved in this kind of commitment to a pitcher who missed significant parts of the last two seasons with arm issues. He has worked just 162 1/3 innings (including the playoffs) since the start of 2021. While deGrom did not have prorated season control in 2020, he will still be expected to handle a full rotation workload despite having pitched only 224 1/3. accumulated receipts over the last three years.
deGrom turns 35 in June. There is no indication that a performance regression is on the horizon. Texas’ commitment runs through his age-39 campaign, and there’s a chance the deal could fall by the wayside if his form falters later in his 30s. Former teammate Max Scherzer and fellow free agent Justin Verlander have shown that it’s not a question of a pitcher staying in top shape as he nears his 40s. Neither Scherzer nor Verlander had dealt with the kind of injuries in their 30s. but they have affected deGrom.
The $185 million guarantee significantly exceeds MLBTR’s three-year $135 million prediction at the start of the offseason. It is the sixth-largest deal for a free agent pitcher in MLB history, behind Gerrit Cole ($324 million), Stephen Strasburg ($245 million), David Price ($217 million ), Scherzer ($210 million with the Nationals) and Zack Greinke. ($206.5 million). The deal contains an average annual value of $37 million which ranks second among any deal in major league history. Only Scherzer’s three-year deal with the Mets, which came to $43.333 million per season, is higher.
The specific financial breakdown of the deal has not yet been reported. If spread evenly, the $37 million in salary would bring Texas’ projected 2023 payroll commitments to about $177 million. It would be a franchise record for the Rangers, but there’s no indication the organization plans to cut back on spending anytime soon. Owner Ray Davis and Young have indicated there’s room for the club to be active on the open market, and there’s still plenty of work to do to turn their 68-win roster into a contender in a tough AL West. The youngster and skipper Bruce Bochy head into their first full season at the helm and hope to snap a six-year playoff drought.
deGrom steps up to the top of a rotation that brings back Gray and Perez, who accepted a qualifying offer. The Rangers acquired Jake Odorizzi from the Braves early in the offseason, and Dane Dunning is a decent back-of-the-rotation arm. It’s a viable starting five, but the team still lacks rotation depth and could add another arm from outside the organization. The infield and catcher are in good shape. Adolis García is the only outfielder guaranteed daily reps, leaving two spots that could be addressed, and the team projects to add at least one reliever.
Regardless of the financial breakdown, deGrom’s contract contains a $37 million luxury tax hit. Average annual values of a team’s commitments are relevant for competitive balance tax purposes. The deGrom signing brings Texas about $192 million in estimated CBT figures, per roster resource, leaving them about $40 million short of the $233 million lower cap.
The Mets will have to move on quickly, saying goodbye to one of the best pitchers in franchise history. New York has also seen Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Trevor Williams in free agency. They are sure to add to a starting lineup led by Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco. Free agency offers a pair of remaining aces in Verlander and Carlos Rodón, and the big-spending Mets have previously been linked to both pitchers. Losing deGrom only adds to their urgency to bring in one of those two pitchers, and they’ll need to retain or replace free agent center fielder Brandon Nimmo.
New York receives modest compensation for deGrom’s departure. The team made him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, which he declined. As the team that paid the luxury tax in 2022, New York receives the lowest compensation: a pick after the fourth round of next year’s amateur draft. The Rangers did not pay the luxury tax or receive revenue sharing this year. So they will give up their second-highest pick in next year’s draft and lose $500,000 in international signing bonus space. If they were to sign another qualifying free agent this offseason, both Seager and Semien had declined a QO last winter, they would be stripped of their third-highest pick.
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