The top free agent starter left is headed to the Bronx. The Yankees are reportedly agreeing to a six-year, $162 million contract with Carlos Rodón. The Boras Corporation client will receive a $5 million signing bonus and a $22 million salary next season, followed by successive $27 million salaries in 2024-28. The deal contains a full no-trade clause and runs through Rodón’s 35-year-old season.
New York is pairing the addition with its record deal for defending AL MVP Aaron Judge as part of a big offseason. The guarantee ties Brandon Nimmo’s for the sixth-largest deal of the offseason. Rodón will end up with the second-largest guarantee among free agent pitchers, far behind the five-year, $185 million deal Jacob deGrom signed with the Rangers.
It’s the culmination of an incredible two-season run. The left-hander broke into the professional ranks eight years ago, selected by the White Sox with the third overall pick in the 2014 draft. Owner of a mid-90s fastball and strikeout slider, he He was considered a potential top-of-the-rotation starter who would quickly reach the big leagues. Rodón actually found himself on Chicago’s south side midway through the 2015 campaign and posted a 3.90 ERA in 304 1/3 innings through the end of the following season.
Unfortunately, the Miami native’s career was derailed by injuries. Rodón missed part of the 2017 campaign with biceps bursitis, then underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery that September. He did not make his debut until June of the following year, making 20 starts. Early in the following season, Rodón was diagnosed with an elbow problem. He went under the knife again in May ’19, this time undergoing a Tommy John procedure. He missed the rest of that year, returning at the end of the 2020 campaign for four appearances.
Growing injury problems caused the White Sox to decline to offer him a contract through 2021. Chicago moved back toward the end of the offseason and brought him back to a $3 million free agent contract dollars This move was met with a fair amount of criticism, but turned out to be one of the best decisions of GM Rick Hahn’s tenure.
Rodón was brilliant in 2021, earning his first All-Star nomination with a 2.31 ERA in 89 2/3 first-half innings. He looked toward a Cy Young Award when he dealt with some shoulder fatigue in August. Rodón missed only a couple of weeks and continued to pitch well upon his return, though his velocity dipped toward the end of the season. The southpaw finished the year with a 2.37 ERA and a massive 34.6% strikeout percentage in 132 2/3 innings. He finished fifth in Cy Young voting.
However, the late-year shoulder issue and drop in speed seemed to spook Chicago’s front office. They made the right decision not to issue Rodón a qualifying offer, allowing him to hit the open market without draft compensation attached. He remained a free agent until after the lockout, when the Giants added him with a two-year, $44 million guarantee. The deal included an opt-out clause after the first year, contingent on Rodón reaching 110 innings pitched in 2022. It was a chance for the star pitcher to bet on himself, knowing a nine-figure deal could be on the cards if he kept his 2021 in a full and healthy season.
Rodón did just that, doubling down with perhaps the best season of his career. He stayed healthy all year, making 31 starts and tallying a personal-high 178 tackles. Rodón worked with an ERA of 2.88 pounds. He earned a second All-Star nod and was one of the game’s best at bats. Rodón struck out 33.4% of opponents against a solid 7.3% walk rate. Among pitchers with more than 100 innings, only Braves rookie Spencer Strider topped that strikeout percentage. Strider, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole were the only pitchers with a larger difference between their strikeout and walk rates.
Almost as important, Rodón’s arsenal showed no negative effects after the slump in 2021. His fastball averaged 95.5 MPH, making him one of the hardest left-handed pitchers in the game. He generated high-end whiff and spin rates on both his fastball and slider, and opposing hitters walked a whopping 14.1% of his total pitches. Rodón smothered hitters on both sides of the plate; he held lefties to a .179/.257/.260 line, while platoon advantage hitters mustered just a .207/.264/.319 mark.
A second season of elite performance, this one without any health scares, cemented the 30-year-old as one of the best pitchers in the sport. His career took a more winding path than expected when he was drafted, but Rodón has become a top-of-the-rotation starter. He made the easy decision to opt out of his deal with San Francisco after passing the required entry threshold and quickly declined a qualifying offer.
Now it looks like a potentially elite Yankee rotation. New York saw the departure of Jameson Taillon, but improves with the addition of Rodón. He and Cole are co-aces, backed by breakout pitcher Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. The latter two have had some injury concerns in recent seasons, but are overrated as fourth and fifth starters if healthy. Domingo Germán, Clarke Schmidt and prospect Randy Vasquez are available as depth options who could step in if any of the top five gets injured.
Rodón was one of three aces available in free agency, joining deGrom and Justin Verlander. As the youngest of this trio, he always looked likely to get the longest deal. The six-year tenure will be the longest of any pitcher this winter, though deGrom’s five-year contract and the stronger-than-expected market for middle-level starters prompted rumors that Rodón’s pitch was looking for a seven-year deal that was over $200. MM. It falls well short of that lofty hope, but the six-year, $162 million commitment is still pretty hefty for a pitcher.
It’s the first six-year commitment for a free agent pitcher since Cole and Stephen Strasburg moved to nine and seven years, respectively, in the 2019-20 offseason. Patrick Corbin ($140 million) and Yu Darvish ($120 million) are the only other open-market pitchers to reach the six-year mark since the start of the 2016 campaign. At the start of this season low, MLBTR predicted Rodón to a five-year, $140 million deal.
The cost to New York goes beyond the salary they’ll owe, as the deal pushes them further into luxury tax territory. The Yankees were already willing to pay the competitive balance tax, and adding Rodón pushes them toward the top tier of the penalty. The contract includes an average annual value of $27 million, which puts New York’s CBT figure within a rounding error of the $293 million mark, according to Roster Resource. That’s the cutoff for tier four CBT and puts them about $60 million north of the base threshold of $233 million.
New York also paid the luxury tax in 2022, so they will be subject to higher penalties as a repeat payer. The Yankees will pay a 30% tax on their first $20 million in excess ($6 million), 42% on the next $20 million ($8.4 million), 75% on the next $20 million ($15 million) and 90% of every dollar spent. over $293 million. Signing Rodón pushes them firmly to the top of the third threshold, essentially imposing about $18 million in taxes. The $27 million salary will bring the total gross payroll to around $277 million, which will easily be a franchise record.
Clearing the third threshold will also drop the Yankees’ first-round pick ten spots in 2024. Meanwhile, signing a player who declined a qualifying offer will have a significant impact on their 2023 draft. New York is subject to the sanctions highest as a team that paid the CBT this year. They will lose their second- and fifth-highest picks in next summer’s amateur draft, while their international bonus allotment will drop by $1 million.
The Giants will receive compensation for the departure of Rodón. As a team that has not received revenue sharing payments or paid the CBT this year, they will pick up a bonus pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round (usually around 75th overall ) in next year’s draft. San Francisco had apparently prepared for Rodón’s departure from the roster by making a pair of their favorite short-term rotation additions, bringing in Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling with two-year guarantees.
With Ródon off the board, Dansby Swanson is the last remaining free agent likely to land a nine-figure deal. The free agent rotation market has mostly been covered at the high end, with Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber and Drew Rucinski as some of the best options still available. Needless to say, none of that group has the kind of upside that Rodón has. It’s a bold gamble by the Yankees, who are hoping he will add an impact arm to their playoff rotation as they look to advance in the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2009.
Jon Heyman from New York Post first reported that Rodón and the Yankees had agreed to a six-year, $162 million deal that included a full no-trade clause. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was the first to report the specific financial breakdown.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.