There has been much talk of a “turning point” following Ukraine’s rapid military advances in the northeastern Kharkiv region and what Kyiv gleefully calls its “idleness” in fleeing the Russians. Less comforting for Western democracies is an alternative theory: that the war is approaching “a moment of maximum danger”.
Concerns that a cornered and desperate Vladimir Putin might resort to nuclear, chemical or biological weapons have resurfaced in the US and Europe, along with the argument, articulated by France’s Emmanuel Macron, that the Russian president, despite his terrible crimes, has not he must be “humiliated.” ” – and allowed an exit.
Speaking last week, US President Joe Biden said that any use by Putin of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Ukraine, for example by detonating a low-yield tactical nuclear warhead, ” would change the face of war.” Russia would become “more of a pariah in the world than ever,” he said.
However, while warning that the US response would be “consequential”, Biden declined to say whether it would involve proportionate US or NATO military action. The tenor of his remarks suggested that he has not personally raised the nuclear issue with the Russian leader. This renewed angst over WMD reflects the trap Putin set for the West when he launched his invasion. By putting Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert, deploying nuclear-capable missiles closer to NATO states and targeting Chornobyl and then the giant Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, he and the likes of Dmitry Medvedev deliberately put Armageddon fears at stake. They hoped to weaken support for Kyiv and deter direct NATO intervention.
It has worked so far. The US and NATO walked into the trap from the start. While providing Ukraine with ever-increasing amounts of weapons and materiel, Biden and his allies continue to limit the power, range, and quality of those weapons to ensure that Putin’s position is not so weakened resort to extreme measures.
As a result, NATO is still not providing the tanks, missile defenses and air cover that Ukrainian forces need to secure the liberated areas and build their advantage. Germany and others take their cue from Washington. Last week, Chancellor Olaf Scholz again demanded Putin withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, while withholding Leopard tanks that Kyiv says are needed to achieve that goal.
Putin’s trap has other sinister aspects, notably the Kremlin’s economic blitzkrieg in Europe. In fact, it is using gas and oil to explode cost-of-life bombs in every individual house, shop, and factory. EU politicians who thought they could reason with Putin are embroiled in the very bellicose confrontation they sought to avoid. Some are wavering.
Putin’s meeting last week with Xi Jinping does not appear to have gone well, as the Chinese president echoed Indian criticism of the war’s damaging global impact. But your general “no limits” association is not affected. Their shared goal: the evisceration of the Western-led rules-based order after 1945. In this context, Ukraine and Taiwan are prologues.
The discovery in recently liberated Kharkiv of Bucha-type mass graves and apparent war crimes represents another part of Putin’s demotivation strategy. His message to the West: Your “universal values” don’t make sense in the world I’m creating.
There is little Putin will not do when he feels it is necessary to win on the battlefield. Daniel Davis, retired US Army colonel
By contemptuously violating the authority of the UN, the Geneva Conventions and human rights law, it strikes at the heart of Western self-reliance and confidence.
It’s not exactly a turning point, then, but a week in which other myths also exploded. The defeatist argument that Ukraine cannot prevail and that Western military and economic aid is only delaying the inevitable has been demolished. Ukraine is winning, at least for now, despite the hum.
Nor is it assumed that Putin’s power is unshakeable. There is growing internal criticism, especially from his pro-war nationalist supporters. His anger is currently directed at the military high command, but everyone knows who commands the commanders.
Now is not the time to relax the pressure for fear of what Putin might do. On the contrary, it’s time to get it going. Because, ironically, it is Putin who is stuck now. He must not escape the consequences of his actions.
For Europe (and the UK), this means extending the overly modest energy measures proposed by EU Commission President Ursula van der Leyen last week and ending energy dependence on Moscow. It means sending more and better heavy weapons to Kyiv and redoubling efforts to inform the Russians about what is really being done on their behalf.
It means creating an international criminal court for Ukraine, like the former Yugoslavia, and confiscating frozen Russian sovereign assets to fund reparations, compensation and the country’s reconstruction. It means deploying a military coalition of those willing to secure Zaporizhzhia, as Lithuania proposes.
Baffling challenges remain. Russia still has more tanks and artillery. It still controls a fifth of Ukraine’s territory. It is mobilizing an additional 137,000 troops on Putin’s orders and could outnumber its opponents in the spring. It has begun a ruthless campaign of indiscriminate reprisals against civilian targets, following its recent setbacks.
“It’s little him [Putin] he won’t do it when he feels it’s necessary to win on the battlefield,” warned analyst Daniel Davis, a retired US Army colonel. But that’s not an argument for cutting him some slack.
Don’t give it an inch. Keep him on the run. Show him that there is no way out but to return. And if, in panic and revenge, Putin does indeed threaten to use a tactical nuclear weapon on Ukraine, the response must be harsh and clear.
Biden must personally and formally inform him, in advance, that any such attack, breaking the global taboo on nuclear aggression and undermining international security, would be seen as an act of war against the US and the NATO, with all the impressive overthrow of the regime. consequences that may result. Maybe Biden already has. I wish I did.
In that case, stop throwing western punches. Go ahead and make sure Ukraine wins, wins well and wins soon.
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