Iceberg A-68 was one of the largest ever observed.
The world’s largest ice sheet could cause “several metres” of sea level rise over the centuries if global temperatures rise by more than 2C, according to a British study published on Wednesday.
Durham University researchers concluded that if global greenhouse gas emissions remain high, the melting of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) could lead to nearly half a meter of sea level rise l ‘year 2100. His analysis was published in the scientific journal. Nature.
If emissions remain high beyond that, the EAIS could contribute about one to three meters to global sea level by 2300, and two to five meters by 2500, they said.
However, if emissions were to be drastically reduced, the EAIS could contribute about two centimeters of sea level rise by 2100, according to the assessment.
This would represent much less than the expected ice loss from Greenland and West Antarctica.
“A key conclusion from our analysis is that the fate of the East Antarctic ice sheet is very much in our hands,” said lead author Chris Stokes, from Durham University’s Department of Geography.
“This ice sheet is by far the largest on the planet, containing the equivalent of 52 meters above sea level, and it is very important that we do not wake this sleeping giant.
“Restricting global temperature rise below the 2°C limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement should mean we avoid worst-case scenarios, or perhaps even halt the melting of the ice sheet of East Antarctica and therefore limit its impact on the global sea level rise,” he added.
Computer simulations
The study noted that the projected worst-case scenarios were “highly unlikely.”
World leaders agreed at the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference in Paris to limit global warming to well below 2°C and continue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.
The research team, which included scientists from the UK, Australia, France and the US, looked at how the ice sheet responded to past warm periods in making their predictions.
They ran computer simulations to model the effects of different levels of greenhouse gas emissions and temperatures on the ice sheet in the years 2100, 2300 and 2500.
They found evidence suggesting that three million years ago, when temperatures were between 2 and 4 °C warmer than today, part of the EAIS “collapsed and contributed several meters to the rise of sea level”.
“Even as recently as 400,000 years ago, not that long ago on a geological scale, there is evidence that part of the EAIS retreated 700 km inland in response to just 1-2°C of global warming” , they added.
Nerilie Abram, co-author of the study at the Australian National University in Canberra, warned that the sheet “is not as stable and protected as we thought”.
The fate of the world’s largest ice sheet is in our hands, scientists say. More information: Chris Stokes, East Antarctic ice sheet response to past and future climate change, Nature (2022). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04946-0. www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04946-0
© 2022 AFP
Citation: World’s largest ice sheet could cause massive sea rise without action: study (2022, 13 August) retrieved 13 August 2022 from
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