Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto wasted little time making his first big trade deal of the offseason, as the Mariners announced Wednesday that they have acquired All-Star right fielder Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays trade for setup man Erik Swanson. and pitching prospect Adam Macko.
Hernandez, who turned 30 a month ago, will give the Mariners a heart of the order that has posted a strong .283/.333/.519 batting line with 73 home runs and 71 doubles in 1,337 plate appearances during the past three seasons Hernandez has been a Statcast darling since his big league debut, regularly posting the highest exit velocity and strikeout rates in the league; that was no different in 2022, when Statcast ranked him in the 94th percentile or better in slugging percentage, average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity, barrel rate and expected slugging percentage.
This penchant for elite contact plus Hernández’s power comes at a cost. While he’s scaled back his high point totals somewhat, Hernandez still struck out in 28.4% of his plate appearances last season. In 2021 he got his strikeout rate down to 24.9%, so maybe there’s hope for more gains, but right now that number is an outlier for the rest of his career. Meanwhile, his walk rate has consistently risen between six and seven percent over the past few seasons, just below the league average.
Beyond the enormous power, Hernandez possesses deceptive speed. He’s tallied just 24 steals (in 32 attempts) over the past three seasons, including just six in 2022, but Hernandez’s sprint speed is in the 84th percentile of MLB players, per Statcast. With slightly larger bases expected to perhaps spur a little more going into 2023, Hernandez is one of several players who could start to take off a little more often. Hernandez is also known for having one of the strongest pitching arms in the game. Despite that speed and arm strength, however, he consistently draws below-average grades for his glovework in right field; Above-average defensive runs saved and outings have tied him as the negative defender in each of the past four seasons. In 2022, he had minus-3 DRS, minus-5 OAA and a -3.1 Definitive Zone Rating.
While his speed and arm don’t translate to right field defense, Hernandez has been a well-above-average player in recent years when looking at the sum of his parts. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference have him at eight wins above replacement over his last 324 games. Those 324 games have spanned three seasons, though one was the shortened 2020 campaign. Generally speaking, Hernandez has avoided major injuries. He missed three weeks this season with an oblique strain and was sidelined in 2021 with a positive Covid test (plus three games on the paternity list). Overall, however, he has played in 84.3% of his team’s possible games since 2020.
Barring an extension, Hernandez will be a one-year rental for the Mariners, and a relatively expensive one at that. Hernandez will reach six years of service in 2023 and become a free agent next winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a hefty $14.1 million salary for him this season.
Dipoto said at last week’s GM meetings that he looked for at least one outfield upgrade this winter, if not two. Hernandez should step into right field alongside center fielder and AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez, but his presence in Seattle creates some additional questions. The club chose not to make a qualifying offer to Mitch Haniger, for example, and while the acquisition of Hernandez doesn’t entirely rule out Haniger rotating back to the outfield corners and DH, today’s trade makes a meeting less likely.
The Mariners will have to determine if they are comfortable with a combination of former prospects Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis and Taylor Trammell in left field. Jesse Winker is another left field/DH option, although as of yesterday, the Mariners were discussing trade packages for Winker. It’s easy enough to envision this group, aided by utilitymen Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty, holding down the fort at the corners and at DH, but more additions shouldn’t be ruled out.
The Mariners, after all, are totally in winning mode now. And even with Hernandez on board, they have ample payroll capacity; The acquisition of Hernandez is a net increase of approximately $12.7 million to the payroll, as Swartz had planned to pay Swartz $1.4 million. Roster Resource projects them to have a payroll of $143.5 million after the trade, and that’s a far cry from the $162 million peak they hit in 2018. The return to the playoffs has likely boosted revenue and MLB has agreed to several lucrative streaming deals that offer each team sizable annual payouts over the five years since the previous record payroll.
By moving to the Blue Jays side of the deal, they’ll simultaneously add a much-needed power arm to the bullpen and shed the aforementioned (and approximate) $12.7 million in payroll. They still project what would be a franchise-record Opening Day payroll in the $176 million range, but the trade gives them a little more flexibility while adding a crucial arm to the relief mix. Swanson, originally acquired by the Mariners in the trade that sent James Paxton to the Yankees, struggled as a starter but has broken out as a powerhouse in Seattle’s bullpen.
Swanson’s 3.31 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate through 35 1/3 innings during the 2021 season were a step in this management, but it wasn’t until last season that he became a dominant force in the afternoon. . Swanson’s 2022 campaign resulted in 53 2/3 innings of 1.68 ERA ball with a massive 34% strikeout rate against just a 4.9% walk rate. In total, since pitching in 2021, Swanson owns a 2.33 ERA in 89 innings of relief, a mark largely supported by non-fielding metrics (2.59 FIP, 2.87 SIERA).
Swanson is an extreme ball-thrower, so some may be concerned about his transition from a pitcher-friendly environment at T-Mobile Park to the home run-happy confines of Toronto’s Rogers Centre, but the fact is that very few of fly ball the balls he gives are hit with authority. Among the 385 pitchers with at least 80 innings over the past two seasons, Swanson has induced pop-ups in the field at the sixth-best rate in MLB.
Swanson was also a batted-ball deity on the mound in 2022, ranking near the top of the league in average exit velocity (98th percentile), strikeout rate (96th), expected ERA and wOBA (97th), expected slugging. percentage (94th), overall strikeout percentage (96th) and opponent strikeout percentage (93rd). He may not be a household name, but at least for the 2022 season, Swanson can legitimately claim to be one of the most dominant relievers in the MLB.
Unlike Hernandez, who will be a free agent next winter, Swanson is a relatively long-term piece for the Blue Jays. With more than three years of major league service time under his belt, he can be controlled through the 2025 season. And, because his breakout was of the “late bloomer” variety, he didn’t accumulate the kind of long track record that would reward him handsomely in his first trip through the arbitration process. The Jays will almost certainly pay Swanson less over the next three seasons than they would have paid Hernandez in 2023 alone.
It’s the same free agency timeline shared by Toronto closer Jordan Romano, who is also controlled until 2025. Swanson figures to serve as the primary setup option for Romano, though he’s they will be joined by veterans Yimi Garcia, Anthony Bass, Adam Cimber and Tim. Mayza in what already looks like a deeper and more formidable relief corps.
Also headed to Toronto in the trade is lefty Macko, a significant addition to the team’s prospect base. Baseball America and FanGraphs rated the 21-year-old as Seattle’s eighth-best prospect, touting his curveball as anywhere from a plus-pitch (free 60, FanGraphs) to a plus-offer (70, Baseball America) at 20. -Rated 80. His fastball is another above-average offering, topping out at 98 mph, and his slider gives him the potential for an average or better third pitch.
Injuries, most notably a shoulder problem, and erratic command have been red flags in Macko’s development thus far. He pitched just 38 1/3 frames at High-A in 2022, posting a 3.99 ERA with a massive 35.9% strikeout rate, but also a 12% walk rate. Those are a couple of big ifs, but if Macko can bounce back and refine his command to even slightly league average, the potential for a quality big league starter is present Failing that, the fastball’s velocity and elimination breaking pitch have obvious late-inning relief potential. Baseball America’s scouting report on Macko notes that he was also one of the Mariners’ most sought-after targets in recent trade talks, and the Jays themselves could be asked about him in talks with other teams moving forward.
In general, trading a popular, gregarious middle-of-the-order hitter for a reliever, even a seemingly excellent one, could be a tough pill to swallow for Jays fans. That said, there is clear potential to come out on top, as they’ll add three years of high-end relief at a budget price and a prospect with the potential to move up the national rankings quickly with a little better luck in the hitting department. Health. . The $12M+ in payroll savings figures will be reallocated to free agent pursuits or perhaps additional targets on the trade market as well, so this will be just one step in a layered process that could ultimately benefit both teams.
As for the Mariners, they will add a thunderous bat to the heart of a lineup that also includes Rodriguez, Ty France and Eugenio Suarez. Dipoto and his charges, however…