British industrial unrest has been described as the second winter of discontent (although not a patch on the mass walkouts that hit the UK in 1978-79) and is expected to reach its peak in the coming days , featuring rail and postal workers, NHS staff and driving instructors. (yeah, that surprised me too) all leaving over pay and conditions.
A vote among RMT members for the latest pay offer to rail workers closes on Monday with the rail union recommending that members reject the proposed deal. The offer could have been significantly higher but government ministers blocked a 10% pay rise for two years, the Financial Times revealed last week. The last of several 48-hour RMT departures planned over the Christmas period will start on Tuesday.
More than 1 million working days are expected to be lost due to strikes in the UK in December, the worst one-month disruption since the end of Margaret Thatcher’s term in office.
Pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s administration to enact anti-strike legislation, and we may hear more about it this week, but successive Conservative prime ministers have made similar promises that have come to nothing. And whatever Sunak does now will be too late for escalating industrial action over the Christmas holidays.
Commuters at a London station wait for news of stops © Andy Rain/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Want some better news? On Tuesday, the first of a new generation of European weather satellites will launch into space from Kourou in French Guiana. Despite what Billy Bragg sang about wishing for space hardware, Meteosat’s €4.3 billion third-generation system provides a real leap forward for meteorologists, providing more accurate forecasts, including better warnings of impending storms.
Three satellites will float in geostationary orbit 36,000 km above the equator over Africa. From there they will provide images of Europa every two and a half minutes, including the first comprehensive observations of lightning from space. By doing so, the system is expected to save lives that could have been lost in extreme weather conditions.
And then there is football.
If you hate the FIFA World Cup, you’ll be glad to know that it’s the last week of the tournament. If you like, you can enjoy the crescendo of an extraordinary month for the beautiful game with the four remaining teams playing in the semi-finals on Wednesday before the final on Sunday; read the FT’s coverage for full details.
Economic data
It’s not just the strikes that are coming together this week. Markets focus on a trio of interest rate announcements from the acronym economies: the US, the EU and the UK. All three are expected to ease somewhat with the projected increase levels.
There is also a wealth of data from the US and the UK influencing rate setting committees. The gap between short-term and long-term borrowing costs, at its widest level since 1981, has bolstered expectations among investors that the Fed will stay on course in tightening monetary policy to control inflation, despite growing recession concerns.
When the UK’s Monetary Policy Committee last met, in early November, the focus was on restoring confidence in the country’s economic management. The Bank of England continues to speak loudly, but this time the MPC’s response is expected to be more measured. Expectations are for a 0.5 percentage point increase in the base rate on Thursday, rather than a repeat of last month’s 0.75 percentage point increase.
The weekends with the figures of the G7 purchasing managers’ index. There is also a summit of EU leaders and OPEC publishes its monthly outlook report.
companies
Expectations are high for Spain’s Inditex, home of the Zara brand, among others © Demetrius Freeman/Bloomberg
It’s a quiet week for earnings announcements, but with some notable companies reporting from specific sectors. In retail fashion, there is H&M, which has been talking about its recovery in the Chinese market after a long-running consumer boycott. Expectations are also high for the Spanish Inditex, headquarters of the Zara brand, among others. For tech, there’s the acquisitive Oracle. And in the field of outsourcing, Capita and Serco represent.
Read the full week’s schedule here.