Melbourne Cup form guide: all the qualified horses and our expert’s long-shot tip to win

It’s here again, not just Australia’s biggest horse race, but its biggest and most enduring cultural institution: the Melbourne Cup.

As always, the country will put down tools and stop doing on Tuesday afternoon to watch the huge field competition, the 3200m (or two miles in the old fashioned) standing test, which has not only turned in its international era into the best handicap in the world, but one of the marquee races on the planet.

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Its history is intertwined with the folklore of the country, its handicap conditions sum up the egalitarian spirit of the nation.

Its history is well known: first in 1861 when it won the mighty Archer, and a winning stage for some of the turf’s all-time greats, including Phar Lap (1930), Carbine (1890), Rising Fast (1954). ) and Makybe Diva, the only horse to win three, from 2003-05.

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Like last year, when strict new veterinary controls, combined with the pandemic, kept many internationals away, it is a field dominated by locally trained horses, with only four from abroad. It’s a makeup that will warm the hearts of some traditionalists, though also with a fair amount of European intrigue.

The shape of the wet track is likely to play a role, with rain forecast for four days until Tuesday. Also, don’t be put off by the relatively low price for English and Irish visitors. The prizes are pretty poor there.

Let’s dive right in.

Flemington, Tuesday, November 2

Race 7. 3.00pm

1. GOLD JOURNEY

Weight: 57.5 kg. Barrier: (14)

Approximate odds of winning/Pointsbet place: $11/$3

Age/sex: 6 years horse (stallion)

Career Record: (Starts: Wins-Seconds-Thirds) 16: 1-5-4

Cash prize: $1,514,914

Coach: Ciaron Maher/Dave Eustace; Jockey: Mark Zahra

On this track: 1: 0-0-0

Wet form: Soft: 10: 1-4-2; Heavy: 4: 0-1-1

Best long distance form: Has had four starts over 2400m, topped by Caulfield Cup second and Arc de Triomphe fourth.

Possibly the classiest horse in the race. Imported last year from Europe, where he had finished fourth in the mighty Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, to run in the Cox Plate. He was written out of that race, but has finally gotten a chance to showcase his talent this spring. He ran a great second in the Caulfield Cup (2400m), the famous start of this one, when he worked hard and was just caught on the line. Then a week later he made a surprise Cox Plate appearance, and ran very well again, finishing an unlucky ninth and winning by less than three lengths. Untried over 2400m but from the top stable and with a great jockey on board and the class will take him a long way. good barrier every sense

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Golden Journey (FR) on the way to the barriers ahead of the run of the Ladbrokes Cox Plate. (Photo by George Sal/Racing Photos via Getty Images) Source: Getty Images

2. PRIZE

55.5 kg (10)

$23/$6.50

5 years old

23: 7-4-1

$2,887,765

T: Edward Cummings; J: Hugh Bowman

Track: 2: 1-0-0

Soft: 9: 3-3-1 Heavy: 4: 0-0-0

Best Long Distance Form: 1st, 2400m, G1 Tancred Stakes, Newcastle, March 2022.

Excellent mare trained by a well-versed young man in training – Edward Cummings, who used to train in partnership with his grandfather, Melbourne Cup legend Bart Cummings. This mare showed great class in winning back-to-back G1s last autumn in the Australian Cup (2000m) and the Tancred (2400m), two weight-for-age competitions. Although he’s winless in four starts this spring, he appears to be warming up to this race in true Bart Cummings fashion: pulling away slowly in shorter races, especially catching the eye when making up ground for the eighth, beaten only 2.5 lengths, in the Caulfield Cup. A doubt if it’s heavy, but a very strong possibility in soft or better. big barrier

3. ORDER OF KNIGHTS

55.5 kg (24)

$23/$6.50

Castrated 8 years old

30: 9-1-5

$2,421,401

Coach: Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott; Jockey: Tim Clark

Track: 5: 0-0-0

soft: 8: 3-0-2; heavy: 5: 2-1-1

Best long distance form: 1st – 3200m – Sydney Cup, April 2022

A tough former British exercer who has taken a while to hit his straps here but has had a great year, capped off by winning this (crucial) distance in the Sydney Cup last autumn. It’s a weaker race than this, but he managed to lead all the way and win by two lengths. His form has also been strong this time around, notably leading from gate 17 and only weakened late when third in the Caulfield Cup. It will stay, it can handle wet. Slight hesitation about leading all the way up this long straight, and the killer is his wide gate. It will take a lot of work to get there. Place better.

Knights Order gallops during the breakfast work session with the stars. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images

4. MONTEFILIA

55.5 kg (11)

$13/$4

5 years old

22: 6-1-5

$2,756,525

T: David Payne; J: Jason Collett

Track: 1: 0-0-1

Soft: 10: 1-1-2; Heavy: 6: 2-0-2

Best long distance form: 1st – 2400m – The Metropolitan, Randwick, October 2021; 4th – 2400m – Caulfield Cup, 2021 and 2022; 3rd – 2500m – VRC Oaks 2020

Very good mare who had a great test for this when coming home from 14th at the 400m mark for the fourth last start in the Caulfield Cup, without much luck. Finish suggested he would cover that trip, as Oaks’ 3-year-old fillies often grow up. He has looked to be preparing for this race throughout this build-up, including a third and a fourth in his two races before the Caulfield Cup, which suggests he has been preparing very well for this race. Not the greatest trainer/jockey combination, but all the winners of the Melbourne Cup had never won one before the first one, had they? big barrier A definite opportunity.

5. NUMERIAN

55.5 kg (7)

$51/$12

7 years neutered

30: 5-8-4

$1,514,573

T: Annabel Neasham; J: Tommy Berry

Track: 1: 0-0-0

soft: 5: 1-01; Heavy: 7: 1-4-0

Best long distance form: 5th – 2400m – Caulfield Cup – October 2022

Irish import now with a highly successful Sydney stable who has shown good form this campaign. It turned into a big, tough race when holding on for fifth in the Caulfield Cup, beaten by just 1.2 lengths. The breeding suggests it will get the trip, and the trainer has added a cross noseband for this race, which helps keep their mouths shut and helps them settle better, hopefully helping them get the trip. Encouraging wet form. Only sixth in just one Flemington race, but that was over the unsuitable 1600m. Chance of decent place – maybe one unit win, two place.

James McDonald riding Numerian during the Breakfast with the Stars work session. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images

6. NO FIGHT

55.5 kg (18)

$11/$3.50

6 years neutered

17: 7-3-4

$410,620

T: Simon and Ed Crisford; J: William Buick

Track: N/A

soft: 5: 2-0-2; Heavy: N/A

Best long distance form: 1st (twice) – 2787m – York, England, June/July 2022.

One of those tough British players that seems to have a lot going for it, except for the absence of heavy form. She won back-to-back over that long distance at York three and two races ago, and drops from those weights – 59.5 and 57 – to a more luxurious 55.5kg here. Last start was also a solid second over 2414m Newmarket, England when he carried 62.5kg. He is from a great sire of Teòfilo stayers, sons Cross Counter and Twilight Payment won this in 2018 and 2020 respectively, the latter doing the near impossible by leading all the way. From a stable stable and has a great race jockey aboard England’s William Buick. If it’s soft, it’s soft to the ears. Heavy is the doubt. The barrier makes it difficult. every sense

7. CAMORRA

55 kg (17)

$51/$12

6 years neutered

17: 4-2-4

$294,998

T: Ben and JD Hayes; J: Ben Melham

Track: N/A

Soft: 7: 2-0-1; Heavy: 4: 0-1-1

Best long distance form: 1st – 2816m – Curragh Cup (Ireland), 22 June.

The well-done Irish sojourn moved to the young Hayes brothers in Victoria for this. Take his length victory (under 62kg) in the prestigious Curragh Cup with two starts. More worrying was his eighth, beaten 20 lengths, in his only race from the same trip in the tougher Irish St Leger. The worry is that while his wet form is said to be good, it hasn’t been of late, with his last three soft/heavy runs being 7th, 5th (beat 10 lengths) and that 20-length eighth. A few doubts here.

Camorra during track work at Werribee Racecourse. (George Sal/Racing Photos via Getty Images) Source: Getty Images

8. LEGEND OF DEAUVILLE

55 kg (9)

$3.60/$1.80

Neutered 4 years old

7: 3-3-0

$556,167

T: James Ferguson; J: Kerrin McEvoy

Track: N/A

Smooth: N/A. Heavy: N/A

Best Long Distance Form: Won Voltigeur Stakes at York, England over 2385m, Aug 2022; 1st – 2615m, Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket, July 2022.

A highly rated British raider who put the writing on the wall with a tough 2.8len victory in the prestigious Voltigeur on his last outing. He beat El Bodegon in third, and that horse showed his style with a third in the Cox Plate last week. Some doubts about him, such as having never tried riding wet. Here he drops from 58kg to 55kg, but this is not the 51/52 range that Northern 3-year-olds (called 4-year-olds in the southern hemisphere) have taken to victory in this race before. So you have to take a leap of faith. But the British know how to produce people who stay strong, and he is an outstanding sire and former champion racehorse Sea The Stars, and they usually run well. He’s got Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle, which is a big help as he’s won three of those things. Decent chance from a good barrier.

9. STOCKMAN

54 kg (2)

$34/$8

6 years neutered

36: 8-7-3

$1,343,890

T: Joe Pride; J:-

Track: N/A

Soft: 14: 4-3-2; Heavy: 10: 4-2-0

Best long distance form: 1st – 2600m – Randwick St Leger, October 2022.

Wet weather sees this tough gelding go for it, with the best long run in both St Leger…

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